Nebius Stock: A 479% Revenue Surge, a $3.7 Billion Cash Burn, and the Customer Question Nobody Can Answer Yet

Nebius closed Thursday with an 8.4% gain, swept up in a broader recovery across AI and cloud infrastructure names. Media reports credited rival IREN's quarterly figures with lifting sentiment across the sector, and Reuters noted chip stocks climbing after the prior session's losses — a slide that had been driven by worries over potentially stricter AI regulation. AP also covered Friday's rebound in AI equities.

That kind of sector-wide tailwind is welcome, but it tells you almost nothing about whether Nebius deserves it. The more instructive tension sits elsewhere: between explosive top-line growth, a financing machine built to feed it, and a major customer that may be rethinking how much of it he needs.

Microsoft redraws the procurement map

Reports surfaced that Microsoft intends to lean more heavily on its own data centers and is reviewing which external AI cloud partners to keep. CNBC reported the shift. For Nebius, which sells AI cloud capacity and keeps building out data center space, the implication is direct: the value of landing large customers rises sharply when those relationships have to survive a buyer's changed investment plans.

Growth is worth more when it arrives with dependable customers and workable financing. Microsoft's reported rethink puts exactly that combination under scrutiny. The opportunity for Nebius lies in serving demand for compute; the quality of the business depends on whether orders and usable capacity justify the heavy capital outlay.

Two analysts, two yardsticks

Truist remains bullish, keeping a buy rating and a $355 price target, citing expected industry-leading growth. The firm values Nebius at 4.5 times its anticipated 2028 revenue — explicitly a bet on future sales, and one whose soundness hinges on how reliably the company reaches that expected scale.

Citigroup offers a more cautious read. Analyst Tyler Radke reaffirmed his buy rating on Wednesday but cut his target to $265 from $324, an adjustment made ahead of the upcoming quarterly report. Holding a positive view while lowering the bar points to a more selective stance, one in which operating progress should matter more than general enthusiasm for AI infrastructure.

The numbers behind the thesis

Fiscal 2025 delivered revenue of $529.8 million, up 479%. That expansion is a weighty argument for the stock — provided the larger business increasingly carries itself. For the same year, a net profit of $82.5 million stood alongside negative free cash flow of $3.7 billion. That pairing puts financing at the center of any valuation: the earnings line speaks well of Nebius only if the buildout remains financially sustainable.

Roughly two weeks ago, the company added breathing room through a $3.5 billion senior secured credit facility arranged by Citi, running 364 days. The proceeds can go toward data centers, GPU purchases and general corporate purposes. Access to that capital is an advantage if Nebius converts it into operating progress — and the short maturity makes the timing of drawdowns against spending a metric worth watching in its own right.

November 12 is the real test

Third-quarter 2026 results land before the U.S. market opens on November 12, with a conference call to follow. CNBC's Jim Cramer is watching Nebius for new orders, completed data centers and the project pipeline — the measures that reveal how sturdy expansion is when customer conditions get tougher.

That date should carry more weight than Friday's sector move, assuming the release offers solid evidence on the business. The optimistic case rests on enormous revenue momentum and Truist's growth call, so long as orders and funding carry the buildout. The more big customers favor their own infrastructure, the more each additional unit of capacity has to earn its keep.