Nebius Stock: A $273 Million Cash Outflow Tests the Credibility of a $12 Billion Contract Haul

Nebius closed more than $12 billion in new contracts since the start of the third quarter, yet the same period left the AI infrastructure builder burning through cash. The company's Q3 2026 report, released Thursday, showed an operating cash flow of minus $273 million — a figure that puts the payment quality of its expansion, not just its pace, at the center of the investment case.

Revenue for the quarter reached $980.8 million, up 571% year over year. Roughly $325 million of that, however, came from one-off partner business revenue, meaning the headline growth rate flatters a base that investors still need to see repeat. The net loss narrowed to $37.5 million from $119.6 million in the prior-year quarter.

Capacity Delays Push Revenue Into 2027

The stock fell 9.6% on Friday as investors digested the outlook that accompanied those numbers. Nebius said delays in data center capacity from third-party providers will shift some expected revenue into early 2027. For the full year 2026, management now guides to revenue at the low end of its $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion range.

The capex bill is climbing at the same time. Nebius raised its 2026 investment plan to roughly $27 billion, up from a prior $20 billion to $25 billion. For 2027, the shareholder letter projects revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion against capital expenditures of $40 billion to $45 billion, alongside expectations for more than 1 GW of new capacity. Some of the delayed third-party capacity is slated to arrive in the first half of 2027.

The Supply Snag Behind the Guidance Cut

Part of the bottleneck traces to the New Jersey site of partner DataOne, where a portion of the temporary power supply ended before fuel cells delivered sufficient output. For Nebius, that becomes a financial risk whenever delivery slips and the matching revenue arrives later — heavy spending meeting a slower-growing operating cash base. The negative cash flow makes the connection impossible to ignore.

Media reports add that the Microsoft agreements include an exit option after a grace period if delayed capacity is not replaced. Microsoft has not publicly terminated the contract. The next hard checkpoint is the planned delivery of slightly more than half of the Microsoft-contracted capacity by the end of 2026, with the remaining tranches due in the second quarter of 2027.

What Would Justify the Build-Out

Adjusted EBITDA came in at $465.8 million for the quarter, evidence of underlying earning power if contract signings translate into dependable delivery. The bull case rests on exactly that: Nebius turning agreed capacity into a broader recurring revenue base, with profit showing up in actual cash flows rather than accounting figures alone.

Until then, the interplay of revenue growth and cash generation is what matters. A stronger expansion would pair recurring revenue with improved operating cash generation; the current mix does neither convincingly. Even the optimistic path demands reliable financing and rapid execution, and the investment plan leaves little room for either to falter.

For investors weighing the growth potential against the execution risk, the next credible re-rating hinges on one question: whether Nebius can convert contractually secured demand into usable capacity — and from there into steadier cash inflows. Should the delivery schedule slip again while the operating business keeps consuming funds, financing pressure rises. Should operating cash flow improve alongside capacity coming online as planned, the financial quality of the expansion would look considerably more durable.