Nebius Braces for a Reckoning: Can Q2 Results Silence the Depreciation Debate?

Nebius reports Q2 results amid Michael Burry's short bet on GPU depreciation; revenue growth and Nvidia backing tested.

When Nebius Group publishes its second-quarter results before the US market opens on Wednesday, August 12, it will do so with a heavyweight skeptic already circling. Michael Burry, the investor who built his reputation betting against the housing market, disclosed a direct short position against the AI infrastructure provider on Friday, entered at $211.77 per share. His core allegation is a pointed one: companies selling AI compute are flattering their earnings by depreciating their GPU fleets too slowly.

That accusation lands at an awkward moment for the Nasdaq-listed firm. The stock closed Friday at €162.56, down 1.49% on the day, leaving it 37.72% below its 52-week high. The shares still trade 30.65% above their 200-day moving average, so the longer-term uptrend remains technically intact — but the momentum that carried the stock through the first half of the year has clearly stalled. Even after the recent pullback, the equity is up 121.17% year-to-date, a reminder of just how frothy the AI infrastructure trade had become.

The Numbers That Matter

Consensus estimates call for second-quarter revenue of roughly $576.67 million and an adjusted loss per share of $0.73, though the secondary source puts the expected loss at $0.52 per share. Either way, the market's focus on Wednesday will extend well beyond the headline figures. The real test is whether Nebius's depreciation assumptions and cost structure hold up under scrutiny — or whether they hand Burry's thesis fresh ammunition.

The stakes are unusually high because the bull case rests on a delicate balance. If revenue meets or beats expectations and the loss per share lands near forecasts without any obvious stretching of GPU depreciation schedules, the doubts about earnings quality should fade. But if margins deteriorate while depreciation practices come under the microscope, the short thesis gains traction regardless of nominal top-line growth.

A Bull Case With Heavyweight Backing

The optimists have plenty to point to. Nvidia disclosed a 9.3% stake in Nebius in July — 22.25 million shares, largely derived from a warrant exercised in March. Nvidia cannot exercise or sell those shares until September 11, 2026, a restriction widely read as a signal of long-term commitment rather than a quick flip. The relationship runs deeper still: Nvidia invested $2 billion in the company during the first quarter.

Nebius also secured a $775 million secured credit facility in mid-July to fund its AI cloud platform expansion, and unveiled "Soperator," a capital-light model that scales capacity through partnerships with third-party data center providers. The commercial pipeline is equally ambitious. A contract with Meta could generate up to $27 billion over five years, and the company has raised its capacity guidance from 1 gigawatt to over 4 gigawatts.

The first quarter demonstrated the growth trajectory. Revenue hit $399 million, up 684% from the $50 million posted a year earlier, with the core AI infrastructure business growing 841% to $390 million. Adjusted EBITDA reached $129.5 million at a 32% margin, though the bottom line still showed a net loss of $100.3 million.

Wall Street's response has been measured but supportive. Citi's Tyler Radke reaffirmed his buy rating on August 5 while trimming his price target from $287 to $278. The automated consensus from 18 analysts sits at "Moderate Buy" with an average 12-month price target of $221.64 — comfortably above current levels. The August 5 appointment of Lindsey Irvine, formerly of Salesforce and MuleSoft, as chief marketing officer suggests a push to professionalize global sales efforts.

The Bearish Counterweight

The risk side is equally concrete. D.A. Davidson's Alex Platt slashed his price target on August 7 from $250 to $175 while holding a Hold rating. Piper Sandler's James Fish initiated coverage on August 3 with a neutral stance and a $224 target, citing execution risks around the Vineland data center project.

Insider activity adds to the unease. Director John Wilson Boynton IV sold 5,812 shares under an automated 10b5-1 trading plan, while CTO Danila Shtan disposed of 16,937 shares worth approximately $3.99 million. Plan-based sales are routine and not inherently alarming, but in the current climate they amplify nervousness.

The financing picture also deserves attention. The $775 million credit facility matures on October 31, 2026, raising questions about follow-on funding. Capital requirements are staggering: Nebius invested $2.5 billion in GPUs in the first quarter alone and has raised its full-year capex guidance to $20–25 billion, up from the previous $16–20 billion range. The company ended Q1 with $9.3 billion in cash after raising $6.3 billion in fresh capital during the quarter. Management expects full-year revenue between $3.0 and $3.4 billion.

Valuation skeptics have their own math. Based on expected revenues, the stock trades at roughly 14 times forward sales versus a sector average of 3.3 times. On trailing twelve-month revenue, that multiple balloons to around 55.

What Wednesday Decides

Burry's broader argument extends beyond Nebius. He also shorted Oracle at $144.63, claiming its earnings could be overstated by 26–27% through 2028 due to slow GPU depreciation. The disclosure of his Nebius position alone knocked the stock down roughly 10% to about $197 on August 6, following a 31.1% decline in July.

The technical picture offers some guideposts. If the stock holds above its 200-day moving average and Q2 results at least confirm consensus estimates, the long-term uptrend remains intact, with a move back toward the 50-day average of €195.65 a plausible near-term target. A miss on revenue or earnings, or guidance that feeds Burry's depreciation narrative, could widen the 37.72% gap to the 52-week high.

With annualized volatility running at 154.12%, the market is clearly braced for a sharp move. The earnings call at 8 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday will determine whether Nebius can defend its growth story — or whether the short seller's depreciation critique becomes the dominant narrative.