Nebius' $1.7 Billion Power Play Meets a Wall Street Reality Check

Nebius secures $1.7B fuel-cell deal and Goldman's 10.5% stake, yet shares fall amid analyst skepticism and Burry's short bet.

The gap between what Nebius is building and how the market is pricing it has rarely looked wider. This week alone, the AI infrastructure company signed a landmark power-supply agreement worth $1.7 billion, watched Goldman Sachs lift its stake to 10.5 percent, and still saw its shares grind lower under the weight of analyst skepticism and a high-profile short bet.

Fuel Cells for the AI Buildout

Bloom Energy and Nebius AI have struck a $1.7 billion deal to deliver on-site fuel-cell power to data centers — a partnership that speaks directly to what many consider the most acute bottleneck in the AI expansion: electricity. The agreement runs parallel to Bloom's strategic arrangement with utility giant AEP and its push into South Korea alongside SK Ecoplant and SK Eternix. Bloom has previously deployed similar technology for Oracle, and the model of generating power at the data center itself has become an increasingly critical piece of the infrastructure puzzle.

For Nebius, the contract bolsters its U.S. growth plans, which include a proposed Pennsylvania data center with up to 1.2 gigawatts of capacity. The company's investment blueprint for 2026 calls for capital spending between $20 billion and $25 billion, funded in part by long-term debt that has grown to $8.4 billion.

A Split Screen on Wall Street

The operational momentum, however, collided with a wary analyst community. Wall Street Zen downgraded the stock from "Sell" to "Strong Sell" on Saturday, while Citigroup trimmed its price target from $287 to $278 but held its "Buy" rating. Morgan Stanley raised its target from $126 to $144 yet kept an "Equal Weight" stance, and Bank of America reaffirmed "Buy" with a $280 target. The consensus lands at "Moderate Buy" with an average price objective of $221.64 — a wide band that captures just how divided the Street remains on valuation.

The stock closed Friday's German trading session at €162.56, down 1.49 percent on the day. Over the past month, shares have shed 14.18 percent and now sit 16.91 percent below their 50-day moving average. Sentiment has also been dented by reports of a short position from Michael Burry — the investor famed for betting against U.S. mortgages in 2008 — who entered around $211.77 and described the trade as "like shooting fish in a barrel." Local opposition to a planned New Jersey data center has added another layer of overhang.

Goldman Doubles Down

Against that backdrop, Goldman Sachs filed a 13G/A with the SEC showing its passive stake in Nebius had risen to 10.5 percent, up from a previously disclosed 7.2 percent. The bank has advised Nebius since October 2024 and structured a $775 million debt facility in July. That growing institutional commitment stands in contrast to the skeptical analyst chatter and suggests major financial players are positioning for the long term, even as shorter-term traders debate the stock's trajectory.

The Valuation Debate

Fundamentally, Nebius remains a growth story with a demanding price tag. First-quarter revenue hit $399 million, up 684 percent year over year, while the operating loss per share of $0.23 came in well ahead of the consensus estimate of minus $0.81. At a price-to-earnings ratio near 60, the stock trades far above the sector average, keeping the overvaluation question front and center. Adding to the noise, the CEO recently sold roughly 46,600 shares at $235.45 — a move critics flag as a warning sign, while bulls point to the sustained revenue trajectory.

The stock has gained 121.17 percent since the start of the year yet remains 37.72 percent below its June peak, with a market capitalization of €48.10 billion. That gap between the year-to-date advance and the distance from the highs encapsulates the tension: is this a healthy pullback in a structural boom, or the beginning of a more serious repricing?

August 12 as the Deciding Moment

Both camps will get fresh evidence on Wednesday, August 12, when Nebius reports second-quarter results before the market opens. The U.S. consumer price index lands the same day, adding a macro layer to the proceedings. The operating margin will be the key figure to watch — it must carry the weight of the company's massive investment program without cracking. Until then, the stock remains caught between a legendary short seller's conviction and an investment bank's expanding confidence.