Moderna Lifts Full-Year Outlook as R&D Cuts and Blackstone Backing Reshape the Cost Story

Moderna gave investors two reasons to recalculate their models this week: a sharply lower research budget and a partner willing to shoulder part of the flu vaccine's development risk. The market rewarded the quarterly update, sending the stock up 5.7% on Friday.

Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 came in at $1.3 billion, a 29% jump from the same period a year earlier, according to the company's SEC filing. The bottom line swung back into positive territory with a GAAP net profit of $0.2 billion, or $0.38 per diluted share — a reversal from the $200 million loss booked in the third quarter of 2025. Higher international COVID vaccine sales and long-term government agreements underpinned the top line, while the leaner cost base did the rest.

Guidance Raised on Both Ends

Management now expects full-year 2026 revenue growth of 15% to 25%, replacing an earlier ceiling of up to 10%. The forecast for operating expenses also improved, with the company trimming its outlook by roughly $0.2 billion. At year-end, Moderna projects cash and investments of $8.1 billion to $8.3 billion — a forward-looking estimate for the balance sheet, not a reported figure.

The cost side tells its own story. Research and development spending fell 27% year over year to $583 million in the quarter, driven by lower outlays for clinical trials as well as reduced personnel and stock-based compensation. For the full year, Moderna now anticipates R&D costs of about $2.7 billion, down from the roughly $2.9 billion previously guided.

Blackstone Takes a Slice of the Flu Bet

Part of that relief comes from outside the company. Blackstone has committed up to $750 million toward development of Moderna's flu vaccine, in exchange for claims on payments tied to the product's commercial success. The structure frees up capital for development today, but the price scales with how well the shot performs — a trade-off shareholders will need to weigh alongside the near-term savings.

Revenue from mFLUSIVA was negligible in the quarter, and the US rollout will stay limited through the current year because approval came only after contract planning had concluded. For now, the COVID vaccine business remains the primary revenue engine.

A Pipeline Reminder

The quarter's good news arrived with a cautionary data point. Moderna's norovirus study failed to meet the criteria for early success at its interim analysis, and no additional cohort is planned for this winter — a reminder that lower spending does not eliminate development risk.

Moderna also filed its quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September 30, 2026. Next on the calendar: an Analyst Day set for November 12, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. EST.