Mercedes-Benz's Record EV Order Book Meets a 31% China Collapse Ahead of October 28 Verdict

Mercedes repurchased 875,000 shares from Sept 28 to Oct 2, as Q3 China passenger-car sales fell 31% and analysts cut targets before Oct 28 results.

Mercedes-Benz has spent the first days of October doing two things at once: buying back its own stock and bracing for a quarterly report that will lay bare how badly China has hurt the business. The Stuttgart automaker confirmed it repurchased 875,000 of its own shares on the open market between September 28 and October 2, a move that lifts the cumulative buyback volume since September 1 to 3,851,805 shares. The transactions carried a total value of just over EUR 35.6 million.

Such purchases shrink the pool of freely traded stock and give earnings per share a mathematical boost — a standard capital-management lever the DAX group is pulling while it navigates an industry in flux.

A Quarter Split Down the Middle

The sales data for the third quarter tell a story of two markets moving in opposite directions. Group-wide deliveries of cars and vans fell 6% to 491,700 units, dragged down by China, where passenger-car sales dropped 31% year over year. Against that, battery-electric passenger vehicles surged 61% from a year earlier to a quarterly record. In Europe, the electric CLA, GLC, GLB and GLA are sold out for the remainder of 2026, with order books extending well into 2027.

Investors, however, are focused on what those numbers mean for margins rather than volumes. Media reports pointed to worries about returns in the automotive division as the trigger for a wave of target-price cuts on Friday. Exane BNP downgraded the stock to "Underperform" with a target of EUR 38.60. UBS trimmed its target to EUR 45 from EUR 50 while keeping a "Neutral" rating. HSBC stayed bullish but lowered its target to EUR 61. Deutsche Bank Research, by contrast, held its "Buy" rating and EUR 70 target unchanged the same day.

A Stock Pinned Near Its Low

The shares closed Friday at EUR 39.73, up 1.3% on the day but only marginally above the 52-week low of EUR 38.90 touched on Thursday. Year to date, the stock is down 34%. The company is now in its quiet period ahead of the numbers, with no further guidance expected until the full interim report and the accompanying analyst call on October 28, 2026.

That date is the next real test. The key questions are how far margins and cash flow have been eroded by the sales trend, and whether management adjusts its full-year outlook. Until then, the ongoing buyback offers some mechanical support — but it cannot answer the question the market is really asking about China.