Mercedes-Benz Keeps Buying Back Stock While Analysts Trim Their Targets

Mercedes-Benz repurchased roughly 567,000 of its own shares over the past week, lifting the total bought under the programme running since 1 September to about 8 million by the close of Friday, the company said in an interim report. A separate disclosure covering 26 to 30 October put the volume for that stretch at 904,601 shares.

The buybacks have continued through a period of falling expectations. On 27 October the carmaker cut the projected adjusted return on sales for its passenger-car division to 2–3%, down from the 3–5% it had previously guided. Group EBIT for 2026 is now expected to land around the prior year's level rather than clearly above it. Management pointed to a tougher environment in China and higher costs in the fourth quarter.

Third-quarter figures set the baseline

Numbers published on 28 October for the third quarter of 2026 showed group EBIT of EUR 1.77bn. The passenger-car unit posted an adjusted return on sales of 2.5%, with adjusted EBIT of EUR 560m.

The stock was up 1.9% on the day the buyback update appeared. Mercedes-Benz did not attach any fresh company-specific catalyst to that move.

Sentiment has been under pressure elsewhere. Shares fell 3.3% on Friday, the session in which S&P delivered a downgrade that has pushed the durability of future earnings to the centre of the investment case.

Price targets come down, ratings stay put

Brokers have been marking down their valuations without abandoning their calls. DZ Bank cut its fair value to EUR 48 from EUR 55 on 30 October, according to media reports, keeping a "Buy" rating. A day earlier UBS had trimmed its target to EUR 42.50 from EUR 45.00 while staying at "Neutral". Deutsche Bank Research, by contrast, left its "Buy" rating and EUR 65 target untouched in a 2 November note.

Analyst Tim Rokossa framed that assessment around China and next year's results. The question for investors is whether sales in the world's largest car market steady, which would ease a major drag, or keep sliding, which would make any hope of better earnings harder to defend. China alone does not settle the risk picture: even a stabilisation would need tariffs and cost inflation to stay manageable.

What would justify the optimism

Should volumes find a floor and the other pressures fade, the bullish case would rest on something concrete, and the buyback would carry more weight if the operating outlook firms alongside it. If Chinese sales keep falling and tariffs and cost inflation bite at the same time, the cautious reading gains ground — and a negative rating outlook only reinforces that scenario.

The next scheduled company event is the Sustainability Update 2026 on 10 November, running from 11:30 to 13:00 CET, where Mercedes-Benz will set out its sustainable business strategy and how it is being implemented. Beyond that, coming business results — particularly next year's figures — will show whether the optimistic valuations and the operating trend move in step.