Lufthansa Draws Mixed Broker Verdicts as TAP Deal and Fuel Bill Shape the Story

Lufthansa shares drew a mixed reception from analysts on Friday, with fresh price-target increases doing little to unify opinion on the German carrier. Recommendations on the stock now stretch from "Sell" all the way to "Equal Weight," even after several houses lifted their targets.

Barclays moved first, upgrading Lufthansa from "Underweight" to "Equal Weight" and raising its price target from EUR 7.50 to EUR 8.40. Analyst Andrew Lobbenberg, who had previously taken a distinctly bearish line on the airline, pointed to falling fuel costs as the basis for his more constructive view on the sector. Bernstein Research followed with a target increase of its own, from EUR 9.00 to EUR 9.50, while keeping its "Market-Perform" rating unchanged.

Two further research houses had already lifted their targets on Wednesday and Thursday, each moving from EUR 7.00 and EUR 7.10 respectively to EUR 7.50. Their ratings — "Neutral" and "Sell" — stayed as they were, underscoring how far apart the broker community remains.

The stock traded 2.7% higher on the day, with one report putting the gain at 3.9% amid a broader re-rating of European airlines. According to dpa-AFX, the sector-wide reassessment gave Lufthansa shares support even as the wider market weakened. No single trigger for the move has been established, though Lobbenberg's focus on declining kerosene prices featured prominently in coverage of the sector call.

Quarterly Beat Masks a Heavier Fuel Bill

The operating numbers published roughly a week ago offer some justification for the more upbeat camp. Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 rose 9% year on year to EUR 12.2 billion. Adjusted EBIT climbed 6% to EUR 1.4 billion, a figure that n-tv reported came in ahead of analyst expectations.

Fuel told a different story. Kerosene costs ran EUR 543 million higher than in the same period a year earlier, and the group has pencilled in a full-year fuel bill of EUR 9.3 billion. Against that backdrop, Lufthansa narrowed its guidance for full-year adjusted EBIT to a range of EUR 1.7 billion to EUR 2.0 billion.

Portugal Deal Signed, Brussels Still to Decide

Alongside the quarterly update, Lufthansa and the Portuguese government put pen to paper on the acquisition of an initial 44.9% stake in TAP Air Portugal. The agreed purchase price is EUR 1.02 billion, though the final outlay could reach as much as EUR 1.2 billion once a ticking fee is taken into account.

Completion remains conditional on regulatory clearances, most importantly the approval of the European Commission. Until Brussels signs off, the stake — and the strategic southern-Atlantic foothold it would give the group — stays on the drawing board.