ITM Power Trades Growth for Time as Refinery Blueprint Stays on the Drawing Board

ITM Power has given investors two separate yardsticks to judge it by, and neither one delivers a verdict yet. The British electrolyser maker posted record revenue for fiscal 2026 while still burning cash at the operating line, and it has attached its name to a 150MW green hydrogen plan that will not see a final investment decision until 2027. Growth, in other words, has arrived ahead of profitability — and the big project remains a proposal rather than a commitment.

Revenue jumps, losses shrink, but the finish line moves no closer

Preliminary figures released yesterday put fiscal 2026 revenue at £43.6 million, a 68% surge on the prior year. The adjusted loss before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation narrowed 39% to £20.2 million. Read together, the two numbers tell different stories: the top line confirms demand is scaling, while the smaller shortfall shows the cost base is being brought under control. What they do not show is a company anywhere near breaking even.

Cash is the quieter part of the story. ITM Power closed the year with £215.6 million in liquid resources, a buffer that lets management push existing programmes forward without knocking on investors' doors. That cushion matters as much as the revenue line, because it buys the company time to convert its pipeline into signed contracts.

Guidance for fiscal 2027 points to revenue of £50 million to £60 million, with the adjusted EBITDA loss trimmed further to £17 million–£20 million. Liquidity is forecast at £170 million–£180 million. The growth trajectory continues; the red ink does not disappear.

A refinery deal with a long fuse

The longer-range story centres on Hydropulse, the subsidiary that on 12 October signed heads of terms with a European oil refinery for a proposed 150MW green hydrogen facility, structured as a ten-year agreement and built around ITM Power's Alpha platform. Front-end engineering and design work is already under way.

The distinction between a signed framework and a live project is the one investors need to hold onto. The 150MW figure describes an intended facility, not booked revenue, and it does not mean the investment committee has said yes. Final investment decision is targeted for 2027, with commercial production slated for 2029 — both are goals, not milestones already banked.

The market has already priced in some of the recovery

Equity markets have noticed the improving trend. At a current price of EUR 1.04, the shares are up 43% since the start of the year, though they still sit below their 200-day moving average of EUR 1.20. Today's session has been less kind, with the stock down 2.1% — a move that cannot be pinned to any single piece of corporate news.

What happens next hinges on execution on two fronts. The near-term test is whether ITM Power lands inside its fiscal 2027 revenue range and keeps squeezing the adjusted loss. The later test is whether heads of terms at the refinery mature into a binding order. A large planned project is no substitute for an improving bottom line, and a continued loss forecast does not mean project development has stalled. For anyone weighing the shares, both clocks are running.