ITM Power's First 100MW Stack Is Running — the Second One Is Still a Promise

ITM Power has one electrolyser up and running at Lingen and a second of identical 100MW capacity pencilled in for completion during fiscal 2027. That gap between delivered hardware and stated intent sits at the heart of the investment case, and Friday's 10% share price slide showed just how little patience the market currently has for promises.

The Sheffield-based group confirmed on 19 October that the first Lingen unit is already in operation. Management also reiterated its timetable for the sister plant, which remains a forecast rather than a finished fact. The distinction matters: one is an execution milestone banked, the other a commitment still to be honoured.

A refinery project still short of a signature

Nor is Lingen the only item on the to-do list. Hydropulse's 150MW refinery scheme has yet to clear its final investment decision, which the company is targeting for 2027. A target date is not a confirmed build, and investors would be wise to treat it as an option rather than an order.

What is already booked, however, is substantial. ITM Power reported an order backlog of £144.0 million, of which 83% was described as profitable. That figure underpins the growth story — but backlog profitability is not the same thing as company profitability, and the gap between the two is where the debate now lives.

Revenue is climbing; losses are not gone

For fiscal 2026 the company booked revenue of £43.6 million against an adjusted EBITDA loss of £20.2 million. The following year is guided to £50–60 million of sales, with the adjusted EBITDA loss narrowing to £17–20 million. In other words, growth and red ink are being forecast side by side, and neither has yet been resolved.

Cash is the third leg of the story. ITM Power closed fiscal 2026 with £215.6 million in liquid resources and expects £170–180 million by the end of fiscal 2027. A decline of that size is not automatically a miss — it sits inside the announced range — but it does mean the clock is running on converting backlog into revenue before the buffer thins.

Peel Hunt trims its target

Peel Hunt cut its price target to 88 pence from 92 pence on 22 October, pointing to execution in fiscal 2027 and the pace of order conversion. The broker flagged hydrogen project timelines as a material risk — precisely the link between a full order book and future trading performance. A backlog can be economically attractive and still deliver revenue later than hoped.

Management transactions offer no shortcut to that verdict. CEO Dennis Schulz sold shares on 22 October to cover tax liabilities following an option exercise, and ITM Power disclosed on Wednesday that long-term options previously granted to Schulz and CTO Simon Bourne had vested. Neither development says anything about order conversion or the path to break-even.

What would actually change the story

The bull case does not require an immediate swing to profit. A credible delivery against the company's own targets — rising revenue from the existing backlog, a smaller adjusted loss, and cash tracking within the guided band — would be enough to chip away at operational uncertainty. The bear case is simpler: slip the project schedules and revenue arrives late, the loss reduction gets harder to achieve, and the cash trajectory comes under strain.

The next scheduled marker is the annual general meeting on 13 November 2026 in Sheffield. It offers a fixed date for shareholders, though not, by itself, evidence of commercial progress. Until the numbers show backlog turning into sales while losses contract, the case for a gradual recovery rests on execution rather than announcement.