ITM Power's Board Keeps Buying — But September's Numbers Will Settle the Debate

ITM Power directors keep buying shares as first green hydrogen delivery from Lingen marks operational milestone; September results to test recovery.

There is a moment in every turnaround story when insider buying stops being a talking point and starts being a pattern. For ITM Power, that moment has well and truly arrived. Directors Simon Bourne, Amy Grey and Dennis Schulz have once again added to their stakes through the company's BAYE share incentive plan, extending a run of monthly purchases that now stretches back several quarters. Consistency, rather than any single transaction, is what gives this signal its weight.

The buying spree has coincided with something more tangible than boardroom conviction. Early August brought confirmation that the first delivery of green hydrogen from the RWE facility in Lingen had reached its customer — a milestone that moves the electrolyser specialist from the realm of promises into the early stages of operational delivery. Reuters tracked both the initial dispatch and the customer confirmation, and for a company that has spent years selling future capability, that handover matters.

What the insider purchases and the Lingen delivery do not resolve, however, is the question hanging over the entire hydrogen sector: is the political wind at its back or in its face? The answer, at present, is both. European and Asian governments are accelerating renewable energy build-outs in response to energy security concerns, a tailwind that should ultimately support electrolyser demand. Yet across the Atlantic, President Donald Trump has signed an executive order barring certain foreign equipment from the US power grid — a measure that does not directly target ITM Power but underscores how quickly the regulatory ground can shift beneath clean-energy suppliers.

That ambiguity is visible in the share price, which has been anything but settled. The stock closed at €1.21 after a 2.6 per cent daily decline in the primary article's account, while the secondary report notes a sharper 5.2 per cent drop to €1.18 on its own observation day. Both versions agree on the broader picture: the shares remain up roughly two-thirds since the start of the year — 68 per cent per one account, 63 per cent per the other — yet sit about 53 per cent below the 52-week high of €2.58 touched in late May. A 30-day annualised volatility reading of 50 per cent tells investors everything they need to know about the ride they have signed up for.

The market's nervousness is understandable. Lingen is a proof point, not a production line. The question that will determine whether this recovery has legs is whether that single delivery can be converted into repeatable operations, follow-on orders and improved margins — and the first real test arrives within weeks. The annual report and full-year results are due in September, with the annual general meeting to follow in October. Those documents will show whether the order book, profitability and capacity utilisation have absorbed the Lingen experience, or whether the milestone remains an isolated event.

The bull case rests on the combination of sustained insider buying and demonstrable operational progress. If management is willing to keep its own money in the stock while the company transitions from development stage to a business with a verifiable project history, that is a meaningful endorsement. The bear case is equally straightforward: if the September numbers disappoint, or if no follow-on contracts emerge from Lingen, the scepticism that has already pushed the shares below their 50-day moving average — by 8.8 per cent in one account — will harden.

There is also the external variable that no amount of operational excellence can control. The Trump executive order, signed last Wednesday, could complicate supply chains for electrolyser components in the US market if its interpretation extends to hydrogen infrastructure. For a UK-based company, that is not a direct hit, but it is a reminder that the sector's political foundations remain fragile.

For now, the story holds together: a board that keeps buying, a facility that has delivered, and a share price that has rewarded patience over the course of the year. But the gap between the 52-week high and the current level is a measure of how quickly sentiment can turn. The September results will not just be a financial disclosure — they will be the first serious test of whether Lingen was a beginning or an exception.