IonQ's Two-Front Push: A Foundry in Hand and a Rival's Tailwind

IonQ shares gain 2.1% as D-Wave's AT&T pact lifts quantum sector; $1.8B SkyWater acquisition closes, but stock remains 56% below peak.

The quantum computing sector has a habit of moving in lockstep, and Friday offered a textbook example. IonQ shares climbed 2.10 percent to EUR 31.66, capping a week that saw the stock gain 9.64 percent. Yet the catalyst came not from IonQ's own news flow, but from a competitor's dealmaking — a reminder of just how tightly correlated this corner of the market has become.

A Rival's Deal Lifts the Whole Sector

D-Wave Quantum's agreement with AT&T set the tone for the session. The US telecom giant plans to deploy D-Wave's technology to tackle complex optimization problems across its network. IonQ shares jumped as much as 8.4 percent in early trading on the announcement, with peers Rigetti Computing and Quantum Computing Inc. also riding the wave.

Market observers caution against reading too much into the spillover. AT&T's pact with D-Wave is not exclusive, and the carrier has signaled interest in multiple quantum approaches rather than committing to a single vendor. Still, investors appear to be extrapolating: if a major telecom is opening its wallet for quantum solutions, IonQ could plausibly be next in line for similar engagements.

The SkyWater Acquisition Reshapes the Business

While the D-Wave news drove Friday's trading, a far more consequential development had just closed. IonQ completed its $1.8 billion acquisition of SkyWater Technology, bringing the largest purely US-owned semiconductor foundry under its control. SkyWater CEO Thomas Sonderman now reports directly to IonQ chief Niccolo de Masi.

The deal marks a fundamental shift in how IonQ operates. Previously reliant on external partners for manufacturing — a dependency industry insiders have dubbed "supply chain anxiety" — the company now owns its fabrication capacity outright. The timing aligns with Washington's broader push to reshore chip production: the US Commerce Department is currently distributing CHIPS Act funds, including $874 million allocated to companies such as GlobalFoundries and Kepler. Owning a domestic foundry positions IonQ not just as a quantum player, but as part of America's technology sovereignty agenda.

The market's response to the acquisition was muted at best. Shares rose 1.32 percent to EUR 31.40 following the announcement — hardly a ringing endorsement for a company with a market value of roughly EUR 11 billion making a strategic bet of this magnitude.

A Stock Still Far From Its Peak

The tepid reaction to the SkyWater deal fits a broader pattern. IonQ remains 56.68 percent below its 52-week high of EUR 73.10 set in October 2025, with annualized 30-day volatility hovering near 77 percent. Technical levels frame the current trading range: resistance sits around $42, while first support is near $30, just above the 52-week low. The relative strength index at 40.7 points to neither overbought nor oversold conditions — room to move in either direction.

Investor skepticism has deep roots. When IonQ last reported earnings, the company delivered triple-digit percentage revenue growth, yet the stock fell in subsequent weeks. That disconnect between operational momentum and share price performance continues to divide the investment community. Optimists point to the expanding quantum ecosystem and IonQ's vertical integration; skeptics cite persistent losses and a valuation that remains demanding despite the drawdown.

The August 5 Test

All eyes now turn to Wednesday, August 5, when IonQ reports second-quarter results after the US market close, followed by a management conference call at 10:30 PM German time. Wall Street expects a loss of 60 cents per share, improving from 70 cents a year earlier. Revenue is projected to surge to $66.49 million from $20.69 million — more than a threefold increase.

Analyst sentiment remains constructive despite the recent share price weakness. The consensus rating is "Buy" with an average price target of $61.88. Recent target adjustments tell a mixed story: Northland Capital Markets upgraded the stock to "Outperform" on June 22 with a $70 target, Rosenblatt reaffirmed its "Buy" rating on June 11 with a $100 target, and JPMorgan held at "Neutral" on May 7 while raising its target to $50.

Early demand signals offer some encouragement. Horizon Quantum has contractually committed to purchasing a 256-qubit trapped-ion system, suggesting the demand side is growing in tandem with IonQ's supply-side expansion.

The SkyWater deal frees IonQ from external manufacturing dependence and moves it closer to the established industrial players of the semiconductor world. Whether that strategic wager pays off will not be decided at the negotiating table, but on August 5, when the first post-deal numbers hit the tape. If management confirms the expected revenue growth and offers a credible outlook, last week's recovery could hold. If the messaging stays vague, the gains could evaporate just as quickly as they appeared.