HSBC Trims 2026 Gold Forecast, but Sees the Metal Nearing a Floor

HSBC lowered its average gold forecasts to $4,490 for 2026 and $4,825 for 2027, as spot gold ended the week at $4,144.04, down 3.4%.

HSBC has lowered its average gold price targets for both 2026 and 2027, cutting them to $4,490 and $4,825 per troy ounce respectively. The British banking giant cited the potential for near-term pressure on the metal, though it simultaneously signaled that bullion may be close to carving out a bottom.

The revised outlook landed as spot gold wrapped up Friday's session at $4,144.04 an ounce, down 0.8% on the day and 3.4% over the course of the week. A firmer US dollar, paired with persistently elevated Treasury yields, did most of the damage. Softer US economic data — including a markedly cooler September payrolls reading and earlier inflation prints that came in on the tame side — offered only a temporary lift. Hopes that the Federal Reserve might ease off its tight policy stance weren't enough to hold those gains, and prices gave ground again.

Speculators Retreat, ETF Holdings Thin Out

Institutional caution has shown up clearly in the market data. According to Reuters, citing CFTC figures, net long positions held by money managers fell in the week through September 22 to their lowest level since the end of July, as traders trimmed their bullish bets. Exchange-traded funds have been shedding metal too: Reuters reported, referencing the World Gold Council, that gold ETFs saw outflows of 1.6 tons in the prior week, bringing total global holdings down to 4,249 tons. That pullback removes a key pillar that had cushioned earlier price declines.

Asia's Buying Pause and Ghana's Export Halt

Physical demand has offered little support of late. Reuters flagged noticeably weaker buying interest in China ahead of the country's October 1–7 holidays, with local premiums over the global benchmark fading to zero by the end of the previous week.

On the supply side, state intervention is emerging in key producing nations. Ghana's central bank, according to Governor Johnson Asiama, is prioritizing the rebuilding of foreign exchange reserves. Against that backdrop, state gold buyer GoldBod has suspended its exports since August. The West African nation's gold reserves stood at 24.4 tons in June 2026, down from 33 tons a year earlier.

Structural Demand Still Underpins the Market

Despite the near-term drag, market watchers point to fundamental factors that should keep a floor under prices. Nicky Shiels, metals strategist at trading house MKS PAMP, attributes a significant valuation premium to ongoing geopolitical hedging and the diversification of sovereign currency reserves. On Thursday she put that de-dollarization and debasement premium at roughly $840 an ounce.

Central bank and Asian physical appetite remains robust. Reuters reported that China alone imported 1,077 tons of gold in the first eight months of this year. The industry's attention now turns to the LBMA's Global Precious Metals Conference, running October 4–6 in Sorrento, which is expected to shed fresh light on global trade flows.

At the close of the trading week, the metal sat 26% below its 52-week high of $5,598.58, a peak set at the end of January. Shifting rate expectations, fund outflows and a temporary demand lull in key markets continue to weigh on the price.