Goldman Sachs Sees 2027 Rebound for LVMH as UBS Trims Target and Succession Talk Simmers

Goldman Sachs resumed coverage of European luxury with a Buy on LVMH and a 500-euro target, while UBS trimmed its target to 525 euros.

Goldman Sachs has resumed coverage of Europe's luxury goods sector with a bullish stance on LVMH, handing the French market leader a Buy rating and a 500-euro price target. The call rests on a simple thesis: after three years of post-pandemic normalization, the industry should turn a corner in 2027, when Goldman expects organic revenue growth across the sector to return to the mid-single-digit range.

Leather goods should lead the recovery at LVMH, according to the analysts. Their optimism follows a punishing stretch in which traditional luxury houses raised prices by roughly 60% between mid-2019 and mid-2026. That surge pushed many occasional buyers out of the market and left brands increasingly dependent on ultra-wealthy clients. From 2027 onward, Goldman looks for resilient demand in the United States and steadier sales in China to underpin the rebound.

UBS, meanwhile, reaffirmed its own Buy recommendation on the conglomerate but adjusted its numbers to fit a tougher environment. Analyst Zuzanna Pusz cut her price target to 525 euros from 645 euros, conceding that earlier expectations for 2026 had proven premature relative to the rest of the sector. Her revised model assumes more caution heading into the next fiscal year, and within luxury she currently favors hard-luxury names ahead of the upcoming interim reports. Even after the reduction, UBS's target still implies meaningful upside from where the stock trades now.

A Bruising Year Leaves the Stock Near Lows

That upside matters because sentiment has been grim. LVMH shares changed hands at 379.70 euros in recent trading, down 40% since the start of the year, with Friday's session marking a fresh 52-week low of 377.35 euros. The slump mirrors a broad cooling in global luxury demand, compounded by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a sluggish recovery in Asia. Valuation multiples across European luxury have compressed sharply as a result, and investors are holding out for hard evidence that the sales trough has passed and consumer appetite is genuinely stirring again.

Worries about China have only deepened. Media reports on September 25 pointed to growing concern over a further slowdown there, prompting Bernstein to lower its annual revenue forecasts for LVMH. Back on September 15, the research house had already trimmed its target to 520 euros while keeping an Outperform rating, citing a pause in China's economic recovery and pressure on the Fashion & Leather Goods division. That core segment is the key to the group's earnings power: if affluent shoppers close their wallets, pricing power and margins tend to follow. No swift reversal is in sight.

Leadership Questions and a Packed October Calendar

Against that backdrop, possible changes at the top are drawing attention. French publication La Lettre reported on September 24 that the Arnault family is weighing adjustments to the group's leadership, with Deputy CEO Stéphane Bianchi potentially gaining Corporate Officer status. The company has not confirmed any such plans.

Investors will get a clearer read on the business shortly. LVMH releases third-quarter 2026 revenue figures on October 12 after the close of the Paris bourse, a print that should reveal how much consumer reticence has bled into the numbers. Whatever the result, the group is pressing ahead with its customer outreach: from October 16 to 18 it will once again host the "Journées Particulières," opening the doors of numerous Maisons at selected locations worldwide.