Glencore's Cobalt Output Halves as Copper and Ferrochrome Push Back

Glencore's cobalt production collapsed by 52% to 13,700 tonnes in the first nine months of 2026, according to the production report released yesterday — a decline driven as much by processing decisions as by the ore itself. The company is holding part of its cobalt in solution rather than converting it into saleable hydroxide, a response to export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Glencore did not disclose how much material it is retaining in solution, meaning the headline figure reflects both mining conditions and the choice of which volumes to process under the quotas.

Own cobalt output in the third quarter alone fell 20% quarter-on-quarter to 3,500 tonnes. The Congolese export quotas are set to remain in force at least until the end of 2027. Market sources expect a possible 25% quota cut next year, though the responsible authority, ARECOMS, has not announced any such measure — a distinction that matters for valuing the business, since an expectation of tighter restrictions is not the same as a decided policy.

Copper steps up in Congo

While cobalt processing suffers under the quotas, Glencore is lifting copper output in the country, citing higher mining rates and improved ore grades. Congolese operations produced 210,600 tonnes of copper in the first nine months of 2026, up 37% year-on-year, with both Kamoto and Mutanda contributing to the increase.

Group-wide, own copper production reached 201.6 kt in the third quarter and 598.6 kt since the start of the year. Adjusted for Mount Isa and Kidd, year-to-date output ran 12% ahead of the prior-year period. Even so, Glencore expects copper to land at the lower end of its full-year guidance range, and the report brought no upgrade to the annual forecast.

RBC Capital Markets had anticipated as much on 22 October, trimming its price target to 6.50 GBP from 6.60 GBP while keeping an "Outperform" rating. Alongside the expected low-end copper result, the broker pointed to higher working capital requirements.

Ferrochrome smelters fire back up

In South Africa, the ferrochrome business has taken a turn for the better. New power tariff agreements with Eskom and a regulatory approval cleared the way to restart previously idled smelters, which had been weighed down by weak demand, cheap Chinese competition and high electricity costs. Boshoek resumed operations in September and Wonderkop in October, lifting Glencore's attributable ferrochrome production by 29% quarter-on-quarter to 125,000 tonnes in the third quarter. Further ramp-up is expected to support output in the final quarter, though the first nine months as a whole remained well below the prior-year level — so this is improvement, not yet a full recovery.

Marketing arm underpins the year

Glencore expects adjusted operating profit in its marketing business to exceed $5bn for 2026 and confirmed its full-year guidance in the same report. The mix within the guidance ranges is shifting, however: copper and coking coal are seen at the bottom of their spans, while zinc and thermal coal should reach the top. A confirmed group forecast, in other words, does not mean every division is performing equally.

Portfolio moves and a Peruvian milestone

Beyond operations, the portfolio is drawing attention. The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that Glencore is weighing sales of copper-cobalt assets in the DR Congo and zinc and gold assets in Kazakhstan, with decisions expected in early 2027. Simplifying the portfolio and freeing up funds for shareholder returns are cited as possible motives. These are contemplated transactions, not agreed disposals, and any proceeds or distributions cannot yet be treated as assured.

At the Coroccohuayco copper project in Peru, Glencore reported progress on 19 October: Antapaccay, which Glencore controls, completed the land access agreements required for the final property blocks. That satisfies one precondition for further development, but final permits are still outstanding and production is expected to start in the second half of 2029.

Analysts stay positive, price action doesn't

Berenberg reaffirmed its buy rating and 780 GBX price target today, while UBS cut its target to 670 pence but kept its buy recommendation — a shared positive stance with differing views on upside. The shares were down 3.6% on the day, hardly a picture of unclouded confidence. For investors, the central tension sits in the operations: copper growth and restarted smelters on one side, persistent cobalt restrictions on the other. How far those gains can offset the export quotas is the question that will shape the story from here.