Ferrexpo Braces for Q3 Production Update as Recapitalisation Reshapes the Register

Ferrexpo will report Q3 production on 14 October after H1 revenue halved to USD 196 million and a USD 100 million equity raise was approved.

Ferrexpo will publish its third-quarter production figures on 14 October 2026, giving investors their first hard look at how the iron ore pellet maker's operations fared through a summer defined by power shortages and blocked tax refunds. The update lands with the stock deeply out of favour: shares closed Friday at EUR 0.3724, down 58% since the start of the year.

The London-listed group has spent months firefighting on the ground in Ukraine. Electricity supply disruptions and withheld Ukrainian VAT refunds have squeezed both output and liquidity, forcing management to scale commercial production back to a single pelletising line. That decision left a visible mark on the first-half accounts, which the company reported roughly a week ago.

First-half revenue halves as EBITDA turns negative

Revenue for the six months to June fell 57% year on year to USD 196 million. Underlying EBITDA slipped into the red, closing at a loss of USD 4 million, while the bottom line showed a net loss of USD 14.9 million. Commercial production volumes collapsed to 1.556 million tonnes, less than half the prior-year level.

With cash generation under pressure, Ferrexpo moved aggressively to protect its balance sheet. Capital expenditure on property, plant and equipment was slashed to USD 13.892 million from USD 29.457 million a year earlier — a reduction of more than 50%, according to media reports.

Shareholders approve USD 100 million equity raise

The more consequential development for the share register came roughly two weeks ago, when investors signed off on a recapitalisation package worth about USD 100 million. The plan provides for the admission to trading of 448,848,484 new ordinary shares. Alongside the equity raise, an unsecured USD 15 million credit facility from Fevamotinico S.à r.l. was offset against that shareholder's subscription amount.

That combination allowed the board to complete its formal going-concern assessment successfully, easing immediate liquidity risk and restoring room for manoeuvre. The cost falls squarely on existing holders, who face substantial dilution — a factor widely cited as a drag on market sentiment.

Legal overhangs and a shifting shareholder base

Ferrexpo's challenges extend beyond the operating and financing fronts. Insolvency proceedings involving subsidiary Poltava Mining, together with related litigation, are flagged as material risks. Media reports point to a claim of UAH 4.7 billion and a separate civil action of UAH 157 billion.

The shareholder register also shifted on 25 September, when asset manager BlackRock dropped below a statutory notification threshold.

For now, the trajectory of the stock remains tied to two variables: whether Ukraine's power supply stabilises and whether production can be ramped back beyond a single pellet line. Until both improve, the scope for a durable fundamental turnaround looks constrained — making the 14 October production report a key checkpoint for the market.