Evonik's Takeover Standoff: A Rejected Bid, a Silent Gatekeeper, and a Stock Pausing Near Its Peak

Evonik's shares changed hands at 21.12 euros, leaving the specialty chemicals maker roughly 3.3 percent below its 52-week high — a modest breather after a year that has seen the stock climb 58 percent since January. The engine behind that run is no mystery: BASF's publicly aired interest in acquiring its Ludwigshafen neighbor has electrified the valuation. Yet as the market fantasy does its work, attention is shifting to two harder questions — who actually controls Evonik's fate, and whether the underlying business can carry the weight.

A Ten-Billion-Euro Offer, and a Firm No

BASF's opening gambit — an offer of 22.15 euros per share, valuing the package at roughly ten billion euros — was rebuffed by Evonik's management as too low. The Ludwigshafen giant is reportedly weighing a richer bid, but it has attached strings: before sweetening the terms, BASF wants a look inside Evonik's books. No binding new offer has materialized.

That leaves the RAG Foundation, Evonik's anchor shareholder, squarely in the driver's seat. According to Handelsblatt, the foundation's board of trustees was briefed on October 9 about BASF's interest but declined to take a position, pointing instead to direct talks between the two companies. The absence of a clear commitment to Evonik's continued independence has done little to quiet speculation.

Politics Draws Its Lines

In Düsseldorf, the state parliament has now weighed in — and stepped back. Lawmakers rejected a motion from the SPD caucus that would have pushed for greater state involvement, including a possible equity stake in the Essen-based group. The proposal had envisioned the state joining forces with the RAG Foundation to secure a majority exceeding 50 percent.

Even so, the political establishment remains cool toward the Ludwigshafen plan. North Rhine-Westphalia's economy minister, Mona Neubaur, came out against a BASF takeover, with the state government's stated aim being to keep research, development, administration, and the corporate headquarters anchored in NRW.

Labor has raised its own objections. IG BCE chief Michael Vassiliadis and Alexander Bercht warned in a letter to works councils at both companies against hasty moves, questioning whether the foundation's entire stake should be sold at all.

Berenberg Turns Constructive

The takeover chatter has reshaped at least one analyst's view. On October 5, Berenberg's Sebastian Bray lifted his rating on Evonik from "Sell" to "Hold" and raised his price target to 20 euros from 15.50, citing the BASF interest as a support for the share price.

The stock took a pause after its rally, slipping 1.7 percent to close at 21.10 euros — just under the 52-week high of 21.84 euros touched the previous day.

Japan Venture and a Biodegradable Platform

Away from the deal speculation, Evonik is pressing ahead on its own strategic front. On Tuesday the company launched an initiative in Japan alongside Toyotsu Chemiplas and Sanyo Chemical Industries. The three partners intend to build a recycling model for polyurethane foam, recovering reusable polyols and amines from used materials and production residues for new products.

Separately, Evonik reported progress on a biodegradable polymer platform for oral excipients used in drug delivery, along with an industry award for its digital development services in pharmaceutical processes.

Investors will get their next hard data point on November 3, 2026, when Evonik publishes third-quarter results — a report that should reveal how resilient the operating business remains in a demanding industry climate.