Evonik's Takeover Poker: BASF Weighs a Second Bid as a 54% Rally Hinges on Price

Handelsblatt reports BASF is still working on an Evonik takeover after its opening approach was rebuffed; no talks are currently underway.

BASF has not walked away from Evonik. According to a Handelsblatt report published Tuesday, the Ludwigshafen-based chemicals giant is still working on a takeover of its Essen rival, even after its opening approach was rebuffed. Whether—or when—a revised offer materializes remains an open question, leaving Evonik squarely in the crosshairs of market speculation.

The standoff traces back to an informal bid that Evonik dismissed as too low to justify formal talks, as reported by Reuters. The Financial Times put the figure at roughly EUR 22.15 per share, valuing the specialty chemicals business at EUR 10.3 billion. Neither company has commented publicly on the specific price demands.

That rejection says as much about Evonik's expectations as it does about BASF's caution. Management in Essen wants a richer valuation before committing to deeper negotiations, while the prospect of a second attempt keeps traders engaged. Officially, both sides confirm that no talks are currently underway—BASF acknowledged sounding out Evonik and the RAG-Stiftung roughly two weeks ago, but the lines have since gone quiet.

The Price Tag That Decides Everything

The crux of the matter is the level at which Evonik's management and the RAG-Stiftung would be willing to talk. At EUR 22.15, the rejected offer sat only about eight percent above the current share price—hardly the premium that would persuade Essen to surrender its independence, according to industry circles. Every additional euro per share would inflate the transaction volume by hundreds of millions, forcing BASF to decide how much financial room it can devote to the acquisition. If the Ludwigshafen group declines to sweeten its bid, the rationale underpinning the takeover premium could quickly erode.

The stock closed yesterday at EUR 20.60, hovering just below its 52-week high of EUR 20.64 touched during the session. With the shares up 54 percent since the start of the year, the market has already priced in a substantial chunk of the takeover fantasy. Investors now face a familiar dilemma: lock in gains or bet on a higher offer.

Analysts Split on What the Shares Are Worth

The DZ Bank weighed in on the rumors, with analyst Peter Spengler lifting his fair value estimate from EUR 21 to EUR 22 while keeping a "Buy" rating. JPMorgan struck a far more cautious tone the same day, reaffirming a "Sell" rating with a price target of EUR 14.00. The wide gulf between the two calls captures the valuation risk at stake: while takeover hopes prop up the stock, skeptics point to the considerable hurdles any deal would face.

Restructuring Rolls On Regardless

Whatever BASF decides, Evonik is pressing ahead with its own overhaul. On September 22, the company announced the continuation of its "Evonik Tailor Made" efficiency program, whose second phase is slated to run from 2027 to 2029. The plan calls for 3,200 job cuts worldwide, including roughly 2,150 in Germany. The savings drive aims to permanently streamline the cost base—sharpening the group's operating foundation and, not incidentally, widening its room to maneuver in any future negotiation.

The restructuring is flanked by planned divestments. Evonik intends to shed businesses including Oxeno and Syneqt. If management can credibly demonstrate the value of these steps, the price a suitor would have to pay for the whole package rises accordingly.

Two Roads Ahead for the Share Price

In the optimistic scenario, BASF turns up the heat and substantially improves its offer. A formal, financially enhanced bid could force negotiations, and an offer clearly above EUR 22.15 would give the stock fresh momentum—supported by the operational realignment already in motion.

The pessimistic path sees BASF abandon its efforts and withdraw without a new offer. Since Evonik has already turned down the first approach and formal talks are absent, a collapse of the poker game is a realistic risk. The chemicals industry is laboring under structural cost pressure, and BASF must keep a disciplined eye on its own balance sheet. Should the suitor walk away, Evonik would stand alone again, and the shares would have to be valued without any M&A premium—potentially falling back toward fundamental benchmarks in short order. The planned elimination of thousands of jobs carries execution risks and restructuring costs, while the sale of Oxeno and Syneqt depends on the market environment. Investors who bought solely in hopes of a quick takeover might head for the exits.

As long as the EUR 20 mark holds, speculation over a second BASF bid remains intact and underpins the price. If the takeover narrative collapses through a definitive retreat by the Ludwigshafen group, a pullback toward medium-term moving averages looms.

November 3 Is the Next Reality Check

The next fixed date is already circled on the calendar: on November 3, Evonik publishes its results for the third quarter of 2026. That day, the company must show how resilient its operating business truly is amid the ongoing overhaul. Until then, the share price stays primarily tethered to news emerging from the boardrooms of both chemicals groups.