Evonik's Takeover Math: Why 22.15 Euros Won't Be Enough

Market observers see roughly 25 euros per share as the level needed to seal a deal for Evonik, above BASF's rejected 22.15-euro offer.

The bidding war for Evonik may hinge on a number that has nothing to do with BASF's original offer. Market observers suggest that roughly 25 euros per share would be needed to seal a deal for the specialty chemicals group, a full three euros above the 22.15 euros that Ludwigshafen put on the table in late September — an approach Essen promptly rejected as inadequate.

That initial bid valued Evonik at approximately 10.3 billion euros in equity, or 14 billion euros including debt. Ulrich Hocker, president of the German Association for the Protection of Securities Holdings (DSW), pegged the first offer at six to seven times the operating profit expected for 2027. He anticipates a fresh approach within the coming weeks.

A 43% Stakeholder Holding the Cards

The RAG Foundation, which controls around 43% of Evonik's shares, sits at the center of the speculation. The foundation has signaled it is fundamentally open to a sale as it seeks to secure long-term obligations tied to hard coal mining. Whether it would back an improved price, however, remains an open question.

On Friday, the foundation's board of trustees met to discuss BASF's takeover offer. According to media reports, no resolution to sell the stake was reached. Evonik said the same day that no talks with BASF are currently underway, and no formal negotiations between the two companies are taking place.

Political Pressure Builds in North Rhine-Westphalia

The debate has increasingly shifted into state politics. While some voices are calling for public intervention, resistance is mounting. Such a move would carry incalculable risks for taxpayers without reliably safeguarding jobs at the company, critics argue.

Government circles have made clear that both jobs and Evonik's independent development must not be called into question. One camp is pressing the state government to examine a direct stake. Combined with the RAG Foundation, North Rhine-Westphalia could thereby control more than 50% of the shares.

BASF Signals Willingness to Talk — and to Pay More

From Ludwigshafen, meanwhile, come signals suggesting flexibility. Two people close to BASF told Reuters the company is prepared to honor existing site and employment guarantees in Germany. Any agreement at Evonik rules out compulsory redundancies through 2032 — a commitment Evonik itself had already made domestically, limiting planned job cuts to voluntary arrangements with severance packages.

Reuters also reported, citing insiders, that BASF could consider a higher offer if talks begin. With Evonik's management officially denying it is in negotiations, the stance of the RAG Foundation and the political establishment remains the decisive factor in how the takeover battle unfolds.

Strategic Overhaul Proceeds Regardless

Even as the market speculates about a richer bid, Evonik is pressing ahead with its own strategic realignment. The company plans to divest its Oxeno activities as well as the Syneqt unit, which employs roughly 3,500 people. A potential transaction with Ludwigshafen could influence that process as well. Both groups generate between 40% and 50% of their revenues in the European market.

On the suitor's side, commitments to existing agreements and the preservation of Evonik's investment-grade rating are also on the table.

The Stock Tells Its Own Story

Investors are tracking the tug-of-war closely. Evonik shares rose 2.0% to 21.38 euros, edging back toward the original offer price. In a separate session, the stock gained 1.5% to 21.28 euros, leaving it just shy of its 52-week high of 21.62 euros.