Evonik's Takeover Deadlock: A 22.15-Euro Bid, a Watchful Foundation, and a Recycling Side Bet

Evonik shares are trading at 21.40 euros, hovering roughly two percent below their 52-week peak of 21.84 euros. That tight spread tells the story of a stock caught between two competing forces: the operational reality of a specialty chemicals maker in Essen, and the speculative pull of a takeover battle that has yet to move past its opening move.

The bid on the table came from BASF roughly three weeks ago, priced at 22.15 euros per share. Evonik's management dismissed it as inadequate almost immediately, and since then the two sides have been circling each other without sitting down at the same table. According to dpa-AFX, BASF is keeping the door open to a richer offer — but only if it gets a full look at Evonik's books. Evonik, for its part, insists no talks with the Ludwigshafen suitor are underway. Without access to detailed financial data, the process remains stuck in neutral.

The RAG Foundation's Quiet Weight

Everything hinges on the largest shareholder. The RAG Foundation's board of trustees was briefed on BASF's interest on October 9, but deliberately stopped short of taking a position or passing judgment on the approach. That silence carries outsized influence: as anchor investor, the foundation effectively controls whether Evonik's management can maintain its blockade or will be forced to engage.

Political pressure is building in parallel. Mona Neubaur, North Rhine-Westphalia's economy minister, made her opposition to a BASF-Evonik combination clear on the floor of the state parliament. Labor representatives have also pushed back — IG BCE chief Michael Vassiliadis and board member Alexander Bercht warned works councils against rushing into any deal, questioning whether a full sale makes sense at all.

Sweeteners on the Table

For those betting on an escalation, the calculus is straightforward. A source told Reuters the current offer may not be BASF's final word; the company could raise its bid if formal negotiations begin, opening the door to a premium well above 22.15 euros. To defuse political and workforce concerns, BASF has already signaled it would be willing to lock in existing German site and employment guarantees on a contractual basis, according to two people close to the company who spoke to Reuters.

Should that compromise soften resistance from employee representatives and the RAG Foundation, Evonik's management could find itself under pressure to drop its opposition and enter talks — a scenario in which an improved offer would likely lift the share price quickly.

The Downside of Digging In

The flip side is stark. If Evonik permanently denies book access, BASF loses any basis for improving its financial terms and could walk away entirely. That would strip the speculative premium out of the stock overnight, forcing the market to value Evonik purely on its own metrics and margins. Neubaur's public opposition may stiffen management's spine, but it also raises the odds of a hardened standoff in which shareholders ultimately come away empty-handed.

Recycling in Japan, Numbers on the Horizon

While the takeover drama plays out, Evonik is not standing still operationally. On Tuesday, the company teamed up with Japan's Toyotsu Chemiplas and Sanyo Chemical on a polyurethane foam recycling project. Evonik is contributing a hydrolysis-based chemical recycling process along with its technical expertise, with the goal of producing reusable polyols for new products.

The market, meanwhile, has already priced in plenty of optimism. In pre-market trading the stock sat at 21.12 euros, up 58 percent since the start of the year, giving Evonik a market capitalization of 9.78 billion euros.

The next hard data point arrives on November 3, when Evonik reports third-quarter 2026 figures. That release will offer the clearest picture yet of how strong the company's standalone business really is — and how much of the current valuation rests on its own earnings rather than on a bid that may or may not get sweeter.