Evonik's Suitor Stands Rebuffed as a Key Shareholder Unlocks the Exit

Evonik rebuffed BASF's roughly EUR 22.15 per share approach as too low, while top investor RAG-Stiftung said its statutes allow a full sale.

BASF's courtship of Evonik has stalled at the first hurdle, but the machinery for a deal is quietly being assembled behind the scenes. The Essen-based specialty chemicals group turned down an approach worth roughly EUR 22.15 per share as too cheap, according to people familiar with the talks cited by Reuters, yet the episode has done little to cool investor appetite for the stock.

Evonik shares changed hands at EUR 20.60 on the day, a modest 0.3% decline that leaves the price just shy of its recent 52-week peak of EUR 20.74. Since BASF opened exploratory discussions about a week ago, the equity has added 4.0%, and it has climbed 55% since the start of the year — a run that has already baked in considerable optimism about the company's future.

A Shareholder Signals It Could Walk Away

The most consequential development may not be BASF's rejected overture at all, but the stance of RAG-Stiftung. On 30 September, the foundation told Reuters that its statutes — with the approval of its board of trustees — would permit a complete disposal of its Evonik holding. That statement from the largest investor amounts to a declaration of principle: for the right price, it is willing to talk.

Crucially, though, RAG-Stiftung also made clear it has neither resolved to sell its stake nor consented to any transaction with BASF. The formal door is ajar; no decision has walked through it. Elsewhere in the shareholder base, the picture is shifting too. A voting-rights notification showed AVGP Limited crossing a threshold on 24 September, cutting its holding to 2.81% of voting rights from around 5.00% previously.

For investors, the takeaway is that meaningful repositioning is under way out of public view. Whether institutions trim further or sit tight will hinge largely on the next moves from the companies involved.

Two Banks, Two Very Different Price Tags

Analysts are far from united on what Evonik is worth. DZ Bank raised its fair value estimate to EUR 22 from EUR 21 on 28 September, keeping a "Buy" rating on the stock. Deutsche Bank Research took a cooler line, maintaining a "Hold" on Thursday with a price target of EUR 18 — implying the recent rally has left little room for further gains in its view.

The gap between those two numbers captures the tension in the market: one camp sees the takeover interest as validation of untapped value, the other questions whether the operational story justifies the price.

November Looms as the Next Reality Check

Clarity on the company's underlying health arrives on 3 November 2026, when Evonik publishes its third-quarter interim report, per the financial calendar. Until then, the interplay of takeover speculation and valuation limits is likely to drive trading.

BASF, for its part, has confirmed the exploratory talks with Evonik and RAG-Stiftung while stressing that both the course and the outcome remain entirely open. Evonik, after initially acknowledging an unsolicited approach regarding a possible voluntary public takeover offer for all shares, noted that no negotiations were taking place at that time. The first round of poker is over; the table, however, remains set.