Evonik's Suitor Stalls as Berenberg Turns Bullish on the Standoff

Evonik's shares are trading within touching distance of their yearly peak, and the reason has little to do with the specialty chemicals maker's own performance. A takeover approach from BASF has put a floor under the stock, prompting at least two research houses to rethink their ratings even as the bid itself remains stuck in neutral.

The numbers tell the story of that standoff. Evonik closed Friday at EUR 21.32, just 2.4% shy of its 52-week high of EUR 21.84. BASF's opening gambit of EUR 22.15 per share was dismissed by Evonik as too low, and no binding improved offer has since materialised. People familiar with the matter told dpa-AFX that the Ludwigshafen-based rival would consider raising its price, but only after gaining access to Evonik's books. Evonik, for its part, has stressed that no talks are currently under way.

Berenberg Flips to Hold

The mere prospect of a deal has been enough to shift analyst sentiment. On 5 October, Berenberg upgraded Evonik from "Sell" to "Hold" and lifted its price target to EUR 20.00 from EUR 15.50. Analyst Sebastian Bray argued that a potential BASF offer could provide a dependable floor for the shares even if methionine prices continue to slide. A day later, Parmantier & Cie. also moved to a hold stance, setting its target at EUR 20.50.

Labour questions form another strand of the negotiations. Two sources close to BASF told Reuters that management would be willing to fold Evonik's existing site and employment guarantees into any agreement — a commitment that rules out compulsory redundancies in Germany through 2032. Neither side has confirmed a breakthrough, let alone a deal.

Politics Enters the Fray

Opposition is mounting in Düsseldorf. North Rhine-Westphalia's economy minister, Mona Neubaur, told the state parliament that she opposes a takeover by the neighbouring chemicals group, stressing the need to protect jobs and industrial sites. How the state government could actually block such a combination was left unanswered. The SPD has floated a separate idea: the state could acquire its own Evonik stake and, together with the RAG-Stiftung, secure a majority.

The RAG-Stiftung, for its part, is keeping its cards close. Its board of trustees was briefed by the foundation's executive board on BASF's interest, according to media reports, but declined to take a position and pointed to the managements of the two companies instead.

A Japanese Recycling Bet

While the corporate drama plays out, Evonik is pressing ahead with its circular-economy ambitions in Asia. On Tuesday — 13 October — the Essen-based group launched a joint initiative with Toyotsu Chemiplas and Sanyo Chemical Industries in Japan. The three partners are evaluating a chemical recycling process for polyurethane foam, with Evonik contributing its hydrolysis technology to recover polyols and amines. The project spans the full chain from collection and sorting through to reprocessing, with commercialisation as the stated long-term goal. No commercial operation has been confirmed yet.

November Looms

Investors will get a clearer read on the company's underlying health in a few weeks. Evonik's financial calendar puts the interim report for the third quarter on 3 November 2026. Those figures should indicate how far operating earnings can justify the valuation without the help of a takeover premium — and whether the stock's perch near its annual high rests on more than bid speculation.