Evonik's Standoff: A Pharma Prize, a Political Lifeline, and the 44% Shareholder Staying Silent

Evonik's largest shareholder, the RAG Foundation, declined to take a position on BASF's EUR 10.3 billion bid, directing both firms to bilateral talks.

Evonik's board is playing a waiting game it did not choose. While the specialty chemicals maker fends off takeover interest from rival BASF, it is simultaneously courting investors, labor unions, and politicians for backing — and leaning heavily on the RAG Foundation, which controls 44% of its shares, to anchor its independence.

That support has yet to materialize in any formal sense. On Friday, the foundation's board of trustees received a briefing from Evonik's management on BASF's overtures but declined to take a position afterward, instead directing both companies toward bilateral talks. The largest shareholder's stance in the takeover poker thus remains unresolved.

A State Stake Enters the Conversation

The political dimension surfaced midweek, when the Social Democratic parliamentary group in North Rhine-Westphalia floated the idea of the state acquiring a stake in Evonik to safeguard its independence against BASF. The proposal adds a new layer to a debate that had previously centered on corporate and foundation-level maneuvering.

Evonik's executive board had already rejected BASF's offer of roughly EUR 10.3 billion as too low. Sources close to BASF indicated Friday, according to Reuters, that the initial bid is not final and that an increase could be considered if direct negotiations materialize. Evonik reiterated that no talks with the Ludwigshafen-based chemical giant are currently underway.

Berenberg's Upgrade and the Market's Floor

Analyst Sebastian Bray of Berenberg upgraded Evonik from "Sell" to "Hold" on October 5, raising his price target to EUR 20 from EUR 15.50. Bray's rationale: BASF's interest could provide a floor for the stock even if methionine prices weaken.

The shares closed Friday at EUR 21.42, just shy of their 52-week high of EUR 21.62. Investors now await Evonik's third-quarter report, scheduled for November 3.

Innovation on a Parallel Track

Away from the M&A spotlight, Evonik continues to build out its technological credentials. On October 6, at the CPHI trade fair in Milan, the company received the CPHI Pharma Award 2026 in the "Digital Transformation" category for its work on self-driving labs. It also unveiled a biodegradable polymer platform for oral pharmaceutical excipients, with initial lab quantities available to partners.

Those operational strides are meant to reinforce the case for Evonik's standalone strategy. Yet the question of whether Essen and Ludwigshafen move closer dominates market sentiment. Until official talks begin, the takeover narrative remains the central theme — and the RAG Foundation's silence the pivotal unknown.