Evonik's Standalone Defense Holds as Brokers Split on the BASF Premium

Evonik has drawn a sharply divided response from the analyst community this week, with two brokerages affirming a neutral stance on the German specialty chemicals maker while a third stayed bearish — all of it unfolding against the backdrop of BASF's unsolicited approach and a quarterly earnings jump that management is using to argue for going it alone.

Berenberg lifted its price target on Evonik on Wednesday to EUR 22.50 from EUR 20.00, keeping its rating at "Hold." Analyst Sebastian Bray pointed to the company's strong cash reserves, which he said make Evonik all the more appealing to BASF. In Bray's view, the quarterly figures are unlikely to derail BASF's takeover ambitions. The new target nonetheless sits below the EUR 24 per share that BASF put on the table just over a week ago.

The DZ Bank moved in the opposite direction on the rating scale, cutting Evonik to "Hold" from "Buy" on Tuesday while leaving its fair value at EUR 22. The downgrade rests on the limited scope for a sweeter BASF premium and the risk that takeover speculation fades from the share price.

JPMorgan, for its part, raised its target to EUR 15 from EUR 14 on Wednesday but reaffirmed an "Underweight" rating — a stance that keeps it well out of step with the other two houses.

Management Draws a Line

At the center of the standoff is Evonik's refusal to negotiate. The board reviewed BASF's letter and concluded there was no basis for takeover talks, opting instead for a confidential exchange of information only. Interim chief executive Claus Rettig told the FAZ that Evonik can generate the value contributions BASF has dangled on its own, and he stressed the group's determination to remain independent. Speaking at the results meeting, Rettig reiterated the position, according to ICIS: no negotiations, but a willingness to talk purely for information.

That resolve is precisely what the DZ Bank flagged as a risk — the possibility that the takeover narrative loses its grip on the stock.

Earnings Provide the Backdrop

The operational picture behind the debate is a strong one. Evonik's third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA climbed 40% to EUR 629 million. For the full year, the company expects adjusted EBITDA in the upper half of its guidance range of EUR 2.0 billion to EUR 2.2 billion.

Alongside the results, Evonik reported progress on two fronts. At its Essen-Goldschmidtstraße site, a EUR 52 million investment has been completed, comprising a new production facility and a large tank farm designed to expand capacity for organomodified silicones and bolster supply security. The planned sale of Oxeno is also proceeding on schedule, with a buyer to be named in the coming months.

A Stakeholder Worth Watching

BlackRock has nudged its holding higher. A voting rights notification published Monday shows the asset manager at 5.25% of Evonik, up from 5.09%, with the relevant threshold crossed on October 28.

Investors will have to wait some time for the next formal update: Evonik has confirmed March 4, 2027, as the date for its annual report.