Evonik's Restructuring Meets a Takeover Test as Analysts Diverge

Labor reps fear up to 4,000 Evonik jobs at risk if BASF's takeover succeeds, as Evonik pursues its own 3,200-job cut plan.

Evonik finds itself squeezed between two forces pulling in opposite directions: an internal overhaul that will cost thousands of jobs, and an unsolicited approach from a larger rival that has thrust the specialty chemicals maker into the spotlight.

Labor representatives are bracing for as many as 4,000 positions to be at risk should BASF succeed in taking over Evonik, according to a Handelsblatt report. Those fears land on a workforce already absorbing painful news. On September 22, Evonik announced it would cut 3,200 jobs worldwide, with roughly 2,150 of those losses falling in Germany. The reductions form the second phase of the company's "Evonik Tailor Made" efficiency drive, which is set to begin in 2027 and run through 2029. Management's aim is to strip out layers and sharpen the group's competitive edge — a process that will stretch the deep cuts at German sites across several years.

A Bid Rebuffed, and Talks That Aren't Happening

The internal belt-tightening is unfolding alongside external takeover intrigue. BASF SE made an informal approach to Evonik and to its major shareholder, RAG-Stiftung, regarding a possible voluntary public takeover offer for all Evonik shares. Evonik confirmed the move in an ad-hoc release and stressed that no talks were underway at that point. BASF and RAG-Stiftung both acknowledged the exploratory discussions, describing the outcome as open.

Reuters reported that Evonik turned down BASF's offer of around EUR 22.15 per share as too low, though the company itself declined to comment on the report. The rejection underscores management's determination to lift Evonik's value on its own terms through the realignment.

Two Houses, Two Very Different Calls

Opinion on the stock is sharply divided. On September 28, DZ Bank analyst Peter Spengler responded to the BASF speculation by raising his fair value for Evonik from EUR 21 to EUR 22 while keeping a "Buy" rating. The same day, JPMorgan reportedly slapped a "Sell" rating on the shares with a price target of EUR 14.00 — a markedly downbeat view of the company's upside.

The market, for now, is siding with the optimists. Evonik closed Friday at EUR 20.66, just 0.4% below its 52-week high of EUR 20.74, a peak it touched the previous session. Year to date, the stock has climbed 55%, leaving investors to weigh whether the efficiency program can justify those lofty expectations in the months ahead.

Biotech Bet and a Shifting Shareholder Base

Even as it trims costs, Evonik is pushing ahead with targeted growth projects. On September 14, the company began expanding its biotechnology capacity at its Slovenská ?up?a site in Slovakia. The roughly EUR 80 million investment is slated for completion in early 2028 and is expected to create 50 new jobs there.

Ownership, meanwhile, has shifted. A voting-rights notification showed that investment firm AVGP Limited trimmed its stake to 2.81%. Investors will get a fresh read on the operating business this autumn, when Evonik reports third-quarter 2026 figures on November 3.