Evonik's Management Courts Investors, Unions and Politicians to Fend Off BASF

Evonik is rallying investors, unions and politicians to stay standalone after rejecting a BASF approach; analysts are split as the stock nears its 52-week high.

Evonik is marshalling a broad coalition in defence of its corporate independence. According to a Handelsblatt report published today, the specialty chemicals group is actively lobbying investors, trade unions and political figures to keep the company standalone, as management seeks to repel a takeover approach from BASF under its own steam.

A Rejected Offer and a Pivotal Shareholder

The campaign follows a move out of Ludwigshafen. Handelsblatt put an earlier BASF bid at roughly EUR 10 billion, while information obtained by Reuters placed the offer at about EUR 22.15 per share. Evonik's executive board dismissed the proposal as inadequate, and a Reuters report cited a first approach valued at EUR 10.3 billion that the company turned down.

The anchor shareholder sits at the heart of the standoff. Just over a week ago, BASF confirmed exploratory talks with Evonik and the RAG-Stiftung, and the stock has climbed 3.0 percent since. The foundation controls approximately 43.8 percent of the shares.

To persuade the foundation against going it alone, management is banking on a united front. Preserving strategic expertise and established structures serves as the lever to rally capital representatives and political players alike behind the independence course.

Analysts Split on the Path Ahead

The persistent speculation is reflected in how market watchers are positioning. On Monday, Berenberg upgraded the stock from "Sell" to "Hold." Analyst Sebastian Bray lifted his price target to EUR 20 from EUR 15.50, pointing to the supportive takeover interest. Parmantier & Cie. followed on Tuesday with a "Hold" rating and a EUR 20.50 target.

René Parmantier of Parmantier & Cie. had already assigned the shares a "Hold" rating and a EUR 20.50 price target on 6 October, citing restructurings, capacity rationalisation and selective consolidation shaping the European chemicals sector.

The tug-of-war has given the stock considerable lift. The shares trade at EUR 21.22, just 1.4 percent below the 52-week high of EUR 21.52. In a separate reading, the stock was quoted at EUR 21.04, within striking distance of its 52-week peak of EUR 21.26, having gained 3.7 percent since the RAG-Stiftung's board of trustees deliberated on BASF's interest just over a week ago.

For investors, the central question is whether the current valuation leaves room for further gains or whether the deal fantasy is largely priced in. The decisive variable is the size of any potential bid. Whether Ludwigshafen is prepared to make a substantial improvement determines the scope for further upside. No binding purchase offer exists to date, and the course and outcome of the exploratory talks remain formally open. Should BASF decline to raise its offer, the recent valuation premium could evaporate quickly.

Two Scenarios, One Deadline

In the optimistic case, BASF increases its financial commitment and tables a sweetened bid. An official offer clearly above the EUR 22.15 mark circulated so far would give the stock fresh impetus. Recent progress in the pharmaceutical segment underscores that the group commands specialised technologies that can serve as leverage for a higher premium in the takeover battle.

On the flip side, a failure of the rapprochement carries tangible risks. If BASF withdraws from Evonik's orbit because of the resistance, the acute consolidation premium disappears. Absent a binding offer, the market would have to value the shares purely on operating earnings prospects in a cyclical industry environment — and a pronounced setback would be the logical consequence.

Stability at the current level is what matters for investors in the coming days. As long as the price lingers near its annual highs, the probability of a concrete offer remains the dominant theme. Should the takeover speculation tip through a BASF retreat or a veto from the ownership structures, pressure would likely build.

Operations Carry On Regardless

Beyond the political and foundation-law signals, the next operating milestone is already set: Evonik will publish its third-quarter report on 3 November 2026. Those figures will show how the business is developing in the shadow of the takeover poker, and how sustainable the operating foundation is independent of the deal.

The company is pressing ahead with its operating business in the meantime. Among its recent projects are the development of a biodegradable polymer platform for drug delivery and the expansion of biotechnological capacity at its Fermas site in Slovakia.