Evonik's Japanese Recycling Launch Runs Parallel to a Takeover Chess Match

Evonik has opened a new front in its circular-economy push, teaming up with Toyotsu Chemiplas and Sanyo Chemical on a chemical recycling venture in Japan. The three partners will target polyurethane foam — the material found in upholstered furniture, mattresses and car seats — recovering the original chemical building blocks so they can be fed back into high-grade polyurethane products. The process yields recycled polyols and amines for fresh applications.

The initiative slots into a broader pattern of operational activity at the Essen-based specialty chemicals group. Early in October, Evonik unveiled a biodegradable polymer platform for functional EUDRAGIT excipients used in oral drug delivery, and its so-called Self Driving Labs picked up an award at the CPHI Pharma Awards in Milan.

A Share Price Propped Up by Ludwigshafen

Those operational headlines, however, are not what has been moving the stock. Evonik closed Thursday at EUR 21.24, leaving it just 2.7% below its 52-week high of EUR 21.84. Since the start of the year the shares have added 59%.

The engine behind that run has been takeover interest from BASF. According to dpa-AFX, the Ludwigshafen chemicals giant floated an initial bid of EUR 22.15 per share, which Evonik's management dismissed as inadequate. BASF has signalled a willingness to consider raising its offer after gaining access to the books, though no formal higher bid has been confirmed. Reuters reported that BASF would leave existing site and job guarantees untouched in the event of a deal.

Access to internal data now functions as the pivot on which the whole valuation turns. Without agreement on due diligence, the gap between the existing offer and what Evonik's leadership has in mind stays frozen. For investors, that review step is the key gauge: refuse the books outright and the takeover scenario loses its immediate driver; open the door to deeper talks and an improved bid comes within reach.

Political and Labour Headwinds

Opposition is building on two fronts. In the Düsseldorf state parliament, North Rhine-Westphalia's government came out against a takeover, with economics minister Mona Neubaur speaking out explicitly against a BASF deal — even as the Landtag rejected an SPD motion to examine a state stake. The RAG Foundation's board of trustees, meanwhile, was briefed on BASF's interest a good week ago without taking a public position. As Evonik's largest shareholder, the foundation's stance carries weight, and union scepticism sharpens the picture: IG BCE's Michael Vassiliadis and Alexander Bercht questioned a full sale of the RAG Foundation's holding in a letter to the works councils of both companies.

Should talks collapse, the risk is pronounced, since the share price already discounts much of the merger fantasy. A failed approach would threaten an abrupt de-rating. Conversely, as long as the market speculates on a sweetened BASF offer, the current valuation should find support from below.

Analysts Sit on the Fence

The changed landscape has prompted revisions on the sell side. On 5 October, private bank Berenberg upgraded Evonik from "Sell" to "Hold" and lifted its price target from EUR 15.50 to EUR 20.00. Analyst Sebastian Bray pointed to BASF's interest as a stabilising factor for the stock. A day later, Parmantier & Cie reiterated its "Hold" rating with a EUR 20.50 target in a sector study.

Hard numbers on the company's underlying health arrive shortly: Evonik publishes its third-quarter report on 3 November 2026. Until then, the shares are likely to oscillate between operational momentum and the next twist in the takeover poker — with the question of whether standalone earnings power can carry the current price if the bid premium evaporates still unresolved.