Evonik's Japanese Recycling Bet Lands as LBBW Lifts Target to 22 Euros

Evonik closed up 2.4% at EUR 21.46, near its 52-week high, as BASF takeover speculation continues and analysts raise targets.

Evonik shares finished Tuesday's session 2.4% higher at EUR 21.46, leaving the specialty chemicals maker's stock within 0.7% of its 52-week peak. The advance came without a single identifiable trigger, though the broader narrative surrounding the Essen-based group remains dominated by speculation over a potential takeover by BASF.

A Circular Economy Play in Japan

While the market fixates on ownership questions, Evonik pressed ahead on the operational front. Together with Toyotsu Chemiplas and Sanyo Chemical, the company launched an initiative in Japan aimed at building a joint recycling model for polyurethane foam. At the heart of the partnership is the recovery of polyols and amines from waste foam, which would then be fed back into the production of new polyurethane products. The move is designed to strengthen the circular economy in Asia and reduce reliance on fossil-based raw materials.

BASF Keeps Pushing, But No Offer on the Table

The takeover chatter refuses to die down. According to a Handelsblatt report, BASF is pressing for talks with Evonik and has dangled a higher bid as well as employment guarantees. Investors and analysts cited in the report expect a possible price of around EUR 25 per Evonik share. Reuters, citing insiders, reported that an initial offer need not be the final word.

Roughly two weeks ago, BASF confirmed exploratory discussions with both the RAG Foundation and Evonik, while explicitly describing the outcome as open. Ulrich Hocker, president of the German Association for the Protection of Securities Holders (DSW), told media he expects a fresh takeover attempt by BASF in the coming weeks. No formal offer has materialized to date.

The RAG Foundation's board of trustees, which serves as the anchor shareholder, was briefed on the interest last week but reached no preliminary decision, instead directing both companies' management boards toward bilateral talks. Reuters also reported that BASF would be prepared to leave site and employment guarantees untouched in the event of a merger, a signal aimed at easing labor-side concerns.

Labor and Politics Push Back

Resistance is building on multiple fronts. In a letter to works councils, IG BCE's Michael Vassiliadis and Alexander Bercht questioned a full sale of the Evonik stake to BASF and cautioned against hasty decisions. On the political side, the SPD parliamentary group in North Rhine-Westphalia proposed on October 7 that the state examine taking a stake in Evonik, which would allow the state and the RAG Foundation to jointly hold more than 50% plus X of the company.

Analysts Turn More Constructive

The shifting landscape has prompted analysts to revise their views. LBBW raised its price target on Evonik from EUR 18.50 to EUR 22.00 on Tuesday while maintaining its "Hold" rating. Berenberg had already moved on October 5, upgrading the stock from "Sell" to "Hold" and lifting its target from EUR 15.50 to EUR 20.00, citing BASF's takeover interest and the resulting support for the share price.

With the recent gains, the stock is trading near its 52-week high of EUR 21.62, set last Friday. Investors looking for clarity on the company's underlying performance will get their next data point on November 3, when Evonik reports third-quarter 2026 figures.