Evonik's Dual Track: A €10.3 Billion Rebuff and a 3,200-Job Restructuring

Berenberg ends bearish stance on Evonik, raising its price target from €15.50 to €20 after BASF's rejected €10.3 billion takeover approach.

Berenberg has abandoned its bearish stance on Evonik, lifting its price target on the Essen-based specialty chemicals maker from €15.50 to €20. The upgrade, attributed to analyst Bray, rests squarely on BASF's takeover interest — a factor that has reshaped how the market values the MDAX-listed stock almost overnight.

That interest surfaced roughly a week ago, when exploratory talks between the Ludwigshafen giant and Evonik became public. BASF confirmed it had opened discussions with Evonik and the RAG-Stiftung while describing the outcome as wide open. Evonik, for its part, acknowledged receiving an unsolicited approach regarding a possible voluntary public takeover offer for all shares, but noted that no negotiations were underway at that point.

The overture did not survive first contact with the Evonik board. According to Reuters, the company rejected a BASF offer valuing it at €10.3 billion, or approximately €22.15 per share, as too low. Even so, the ownership picture has not stood still. The RAG-Stiftung, Evonik's anchor shareholder, made clear through a statement to the news agency that a complete sale of its stake is permissible under the foundation's statutes — provided the board of trustees gives its approval.

Restructuring Runs in Parallel

While the takeover drama plays out, Evonik is pressing ahead with a transformation agenda of its own. The centerpiece is "Evonik Tailor Made," a program that envisions cutting 3,200 positions worldwide between 2027 and 2029. Roughly 2,150 of those job losses would fall on German sites. The company continues to rule out compulsory redundancies as part of the reduction, and is assigning specific operational mandates to its major German plants while steering the portfolio according to fixed role profiles.

Portfolio pruning complements the payroll cuts. Evonik intends to divest two subsidiaries, Oxeno and Syneqt. Interim chief Claus Rettig has indicated, according to media reports, that results from the Oxeno sale process could emerge before the end of the current year. The Syneqt disposal, by contrast, is not slated to begin until 2027. Management is simultaneously reviewing further options in the Americas and Asia.

Not every line item is a subtraction. At its Slovenská ?up?a site in Slovakia, Evonik broke ground on an expansion on September 14, committing around €80 million to the project. Completion is targeted for early 2028, at which point roughly 50 new jobs will be created there.

Analysts Reposition as the Stock Nears Its Peak

The shifting landscape has prompted a wave of estimate revisions. DZ Bank's Peter Spengler raised his fair value for Evonik from €21 to €22 on September 28, reiterating his buy rating. Spengler sees additional upside from merger speculation but flags unresolved questions around financing and potential synergies.

Berenberg's move came from the opposite direction, ending a skeptical posture that had kept its target well below the current share price. The common thread is the potential transaction, which has provided a floor under the valuation even as the chemical sector's fundamental challenges persist.

Trading has reflected that dynamic. The stock has gained 4.5% since the exploratory talks began, and by a later reading was up 5.3% at €20.86. At €20.70, the shares sit just 1.3% below their 52-week high of €20.98.

What happens next hinges on whether the two traditional companies restart their conversations or BASF returns with a sweetened bid. A scheduled checkpoint arrives on November 3, 2026, when Evonik publishes its third-quarter financial report and gives the market a fresh look at operating performance.