Evonik's Buyback of Independence: Strong Cash Generation Meets a 24-Euro Question

Evonik's finance chief has branded the timing of BASF's takeover ambitions "truly odd," yet the specialty chemicals maker's own numbers are doing much of the talking. A day after unveiling quarterly figures that showed earnings climbing far faster than sales, the company found itself defending a standalone path against a 24-euro-per-share approach — and pointing to its cash machine as the strongest argument for going it alone.

Free cash flow for the third quarter of 2026 came in at 369 million euros, with 601 million euros generated over the first nine months of the year. Management expects roughly 850 million euros for the full year, a projection rather than a banked result. Those figures give investors a second lens on the business beyond adjusted earnings, one that speaks directly to Evonik's ability to fund itself without a buyer.

A 40% Jump That Analysts Won't Turn Into a Buy

The operating story is undeniably stronger. Adjusted EBITDA rose 40% year on year to 629 million euros, while revenue advanced 13% — meaning profit outpaced top-line growth. For 2026, Evonik expects adjusted EBITDA in the upper half of a 2.0-to-2.2 billion euro range.

Berenberg's Sebastian Bray acknowledged the improvement on Tuesday by lifting his price target to 22.50 euros from 20.00 euros, but kept his rating at "Hold." In his view, Evonik's strong cash position adds to its appeal, and the quarterly results are unlikely to derail BASF's interest in a deal. Even a raised target, then, stopped short of a buy call — a reminder that an analyst's fair-value estimate and a takeover price serve entirely different purposes.

The gap between the two benchmarks is stark. Reuters reported on 30 October that BASF had sweetened its offer to 24 euros per share, above Bray's revised target. Investors weighing Evonik therefore face a split screen: what the company is worth on its own merits, and what a suitor might be willing to pay.

Talks Declined, Information Shared

Evonik's board rejected negotiations over BASF's interest in a voluntary public takeover offer on 30 October, while agreeing to a purely informational, confidential exchange. That distinction matters — a willingness to talk is not consent to negotiate. Chief Financial Officer Michael Rauch reinforced the stance on Tuesday, putting the continuation of Evonik's own course front and center.

The strategic tension extends beyond the parent company. Reuters reported on 27 October that Thomas Basten, spokesperson for the management of Evonik's Syneqt unit — which has been put up for sale — described independence for the subsidiary as strategically sensible. BASF had earlier said it could operate the Marl and Wesseling chemical parks itself, leaving the future shape of the infrastructure business an open question alongside the takeover saga.

What emerges is a two-track picture. Cash generation and the earnings recovery make the case for Evonik's standalone future, while divergent views on how the infrastructure assets should be run show that the strategic contest is far from settled by a single strong quarter. Neither the improved figures nor the board's rebuff resolves the valuation debate — they simply give investors more to weigh.