Evonik's 60% Rally Meets a November Triple Test: Oxeno Bids, Q3 Numbers and BASF's Waiting Game

Evonik shares have climbed 60% since the start of the year, closing Friday at EUR 21.32 — a whisker below their 52-week high of EUR 21.84, just 2.4% off the peak. Behind that run sits an unusual combination: a takeover approach from Ludwigshafen rival BASF, a portfolio slim-down in progress, and a valuation debate that has already pushed at least two research houses to shift their stance.

The stock's advance has been fuelled in part by the possibility of a BASF offer, which Berenberg analyst Sebastian Bray argued could provide a reliable floor under the shares even if methionine prices decline. On 5 October the private bank upgraded Evonik from "Sell" to "Hold" and lifted its price target from EUR 15.50 to EUR 20.00. A day later, Parmantier & Cie. also moved to a hold position, setting a target of EUR 20.50.

A First Bid Rejected, Books Still Shut

BASF's opening gambit — EUR 22.15 per share, according to dpa-AFX — was turned down by Evonik as insufficient. People familiar with the matter consider a sweetened offer possible, but the suitor has tied any further talks on price to prior access to Evonik's books. No direct negotiations are currently under way, though BASF has left the door open to raising its bid. Reuters reported that BASF had earlier signalled willingness to underpin existing German site and employment guarantees in contractual form; Evonik's current arrangements rule out compulsory redundancies in Germany until 2032.

The decisive voice may belong to Evonik's anchor shareholder. The board of trustees of the RAG-Stiftung was briefed by the foundation's executive board on BASF's interest, but declined to take a position, pointing instead to the managements of the two companies.

Düsseldorf Pushes Back

Political resistance has added a further layer of complication. North Rhine-Westphalia's economy minister, Mona Neubaur, spoke out in the Düsseldorf state parliament against a merger of the two chemical groups, stressing the preservation of jobs and industrial sites. How the state government could practically block a combination remained unclear.

On the financing question, Evonik pushed back against claims raised by IG BCE chief Michael Vassiliadis. Citing company circles, Handelsblatt reported that Evonik rejected the concerns, pointing to improved credit ratings and dismissing doubts about its balance sheet.

Oxeno Sale Enters Round Two

Internally, the group is pressing ahead with the separation of peripheral businesses. The sale process for the C4 unit Oxeno has reached a second round, with financial investors and strategic players among the interested parties — including AURELIUS, AEQUITA and ICIG. Final bids are expected in November. A successful deal would bring fresh funds and sharpen Evonik's focus on higher-margin specialty chemicals.

Japan Recycling Tie-Up and the Q3 Date

Alongside the M&A noise, Evonik is pursuing sustainability projects. Roughly a week ago — on Tuesday — the Essen-based company launched a joint initiative in Japan with Toyotsu Chemiplas and Sanyo Chemical Industries. The three partners will evaluate chemical recycling of polyurethane foam and aim to develop a scalable model, with Evonik contributing its hydrolysis technology to recover polyols and amines.

Investors will get a clearer read on the group's fundamental health in a few weeks: according to its financial calendar, Evonik publishes its interim report for the third quarter on 3 November 2026. Those figures should show how far operating earnings power can justify the valuation without a takeover premium baked in.