Evonik's 55% Rally Stalls at the Doorstep of Its 52-Week High as Analysts Split on What Comes Next

Evonik shares sit 0.4% below their 52-week peak after a 55% YTD run, with Deutsche Bank at EUR 18 and DZ Bank at EUR 22 before the Nov 3 Q3 report.

Evonik shares ended Friday's session at EUR 20.66, a whisker — just 0.4% — below their 52-week peak of EUR 20.74. The stock has climbed 55% since the start of the year, a run that now collides with a November 3 earnings date and a widening disagreement on the sell side over how much recovery is left to price in.

The two camps could hardly be further apart. Deutsche Bank Research's Virginie Boucher-Ferte reiterated a "Hold" rating on Thursday with a EUR 18 target, a level the equity has already left well behind. The DZ Bank occupies the opposite corner, having raised its fair value estimate on September 28 from EUR 21 to EUR 22 while keeping a "Buy" recommendation. In the analysts' view, additional upside could come from takeover speculation, though they flagged unresolved questions around financing, synergies and the stance of the RAG-Stiftung.

A Rejected Overture Sets the Tone

That speculation has a concrete origin. Evonik turned down an informal approach from Ludwigshafen rival BASF in late September, judging roughly EUR 22.15 per share — a package valued at about EUR 10.3 billion — to be too low. Neither company has publicly confirmed the precise terms. What is on the record is that Evonik acknowledged an unsolicited expression of interest from BASF while stressing that no talks are currently underway, and that BASF confirmed exploratory discussions with both Evonik and the RAG-Stiftung, describing the outcome as open. The RAG-Stiftung, Evonik's major shareholder, was drawn into those early soundings.

Ownership Shifts Beneath the Surface

While the takeover question simmers, the shareholder register has been moving. Investment firm AVGP Limited cut its voting rights in Evonik from just under 5.00% to 2.81%, with the reportable threshold crossing dated September 24.

Management's Own Agenda

Evonik is not waiting on BASF to chart its future. Roughly two weeks ago the specialty chemicals group unveiled the cornerstones of the second phase of its "Evonik Tailor Made" efficiency program, covering 2027 to 2029. The plan calls for 3,200 positions to be eliminated worldwide, including about 2,150 in Germany.

Not all the money is flowing out the door. At the Fermas site in Slovakia, construction has begun on an expansion of biotech capacity, a project carrying a total investment of around EUR 80 million.

The November Verdict

All of this sets up November 3 as the next real test. That is when Evonik publishes its third-quarter report, offering the first hard operational data since the BASF overture became public. Until then, the gap between a EUR 18 target and a EUR 22 one — with the shares trading at EUR 20.66 — tells its own story about how much of the rally rests on execution and how much on a bid that has yet to materialize.