Evonik's 18-Euro Problem: Two Banks, One Stock, and a Takeover Bid in the Balance

Evonik shares sit 0.4% below their 52-week high as Deutsche Bank sees 13% overvaluation and DZ Bank cites takeover upside. Q3 results due 3 November.

Evonik's share price is doing something that makes analysts uncomfortable. At Friday's close of €20.66, the specialty chemicals maker sits just 0.4% below its 52-week high of €20.74 — a level that Deutsche Bank Research thinks is roughly 13% too generous. Analyst Virginie Boucher-Ferte reiterated a "Hold" rating on Thursday with a price target of €18, arguing that the stock is being carried primarily by takeover speculation rather than by the company's underlying business.

The DZ Bank sees it differently. On 28 September, analyst Peter Spengler raised his fair value estimate from €21 to €22 and kept a "Buy" recommendation, citing the additional upside offered by consolidation hopes. That leaves a €4 gap between the two houses — a spread that captures the central tension in Evonik's investment case right now.

What the bulls and bears actually agree on

Even the more optimistic camp is not blind to the risks. The DZ Bank flags unresolved questions about how a combination would be financed, what synergies could realistically be extracted, and where the RAG-Stiftung — Evonik's anchor shareholder — ultimately stands. None of those issues has been settled.

The bearish case rests on a simpler observation: the rally has outrun the fundamentals. Boucher-Ferte expects EBITDA of €640 million in the third quarter, a figure that will need to justify a share price that has climbed on little more than deal chatter.

The bid that wasn't

That chatter has a concrete origin. According to Reuters, Evonik rejected an initial takeover offer from BASF as too low. The Handelsblatt subsequently reported that the Ludwigshafen-based rival is nonetheless sticking to its acquisition plans. Evonik has stated plainly that no talks are currently taking place between the two chemical groups.

The numbers behind the rejected approach, as reported in the media, were roughly €22.15 per share — equivalent to about €10.3 billion. Neither company has publicly confirmed that specific figure. What is on the record is narrower: Evonik acknowledged an unsolicited approach from BASF regarding a possible offer and said no negotiations were underway, while BASF confirmed exploratory discussions with both Evonik and the RAG-Stiftung and described the outcome as open.

Shareholder registers have shifted alongside the speculation. AVGP Limited disclosed in late September that it had cut its voting stake in Evonik from just under 5% to 2.81%.

Restructuring on its own terms

While BASF circles, Evonik is pressing ahead with a self-help agenda. Under the "Evonik Tailor Made" cost-cutting program, announced roughly two weeks ago, the group plans to shed 3,200 positions worldwide, with about 2,150 of those cuts falling at German sites. Management frames the move as a strategic sharpening of its growth targets: German production sites are to take on more clearly defined roles within the portfolio, a process intended to lift operating performance and make the company more resilient to economic swings.

The second phase of the overhaul is scheduled to begin in 2027 and run through 2029.

November is the reckoning

Near-term attention now turns to the financial calendar. On 3 November 2026, Evonik will publish its full third-quarter results. That report will be the first hard test of whether earnings power can keep pace with a stock that has spent recent weeks trading on hope rather than numbers — and whether the gap between €18 and €22 narrows in either direction.