Evonik's €10.3 Billion Rejection Draws Political Scrutiny as Analysts Turn Cautious

North Rhine-Westphalia backs Evonik's independence after the company turned down BASF's €10.3 billion offer, as Evonik pursues its own restructuring.

North Rhine-Westphalia's state government has thrown its weight behind keeping Evonik independent, warning that jobs and the specialty chemicals maker's ability to chart its own course must not be jeopardized by a takeover. The intervention, announced Tuesday, follows exploratory talks between Evonik and BASF that surfaced roughly a week earlier.

At the heart of the political unease is a bid that never got off the ground. Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that Evonik turned down an offer from BASF valued at €10.3 billion, or about €22.15 per share, on the grounds that it was too low. Evonik declined to comment on the approach.

For officials in Düsseldorf, the concern extends beyond keeping the company's headquarters in place. A combination of the two chemical giants would create substantial overlaps, potentially adding further strain to an industrial base already under pressure.

A €10.3 Billion Bid Meets a Firm No

The rebuffed approach has nonetheless reshaped how the market values Evonik. Both companies had previously confirmed sounding-out discussions, which also involved the RAG-Stiftung. Since the first signals emerged, the stock has held at elevated levels. In pre-market trading the shares changed hands at €20.68, a dip of 0.4%, though that still leaves the company with a gain of 55% since the start of the year. The market capitalization stands at €9.58 billion, with the stock quoted at €20.76 on the exchange.

Analysts have been recalibrating their models accordingly. Berenberg's Sebastian Bray upgraded the stock from "Sell" to "Hold" on Monday and lifted his price target sharply, from €15.50 to €20, citing the takeover interest around the Essen-based group and the supporting effect of the talks. A day later, Parmantier & Cie. took a similar line, initiating coverage at "Hold" with a €20.50 target as part of its "European Chemicals: The 2027 Cycle" sector report. In Parmantier's view, the recent run-up has left the shares largely fairly valued, and the current analyst targets suggest upside may be limited without a sweetened or binding offer.

Restructuring Runs in Parallel

While the takeover question simmers, Evonik's management is pressing ahead with its own overhaul. On September 22 the company unveiled a sharpened growth strategy aimed at giving its portfolio and major German sites a clearer profile. Central to the "Evonik Tailor Made" program is the elimination of 3,200 positions worldwide by the end of 2029, with roughly 2,150 of those cuts falling at German locations.

The company is also looking to strengthen its core business through new products. Evonik has developed a biodegradable polymer platform for future pharmaceutical EUDRAGIT excipients designed for oral administration. The concept is set to be presented on October 7 at the CPHI trade fair in Milan.

Investors will get their next hard read on the operating side on November 3, when Evonik publishes its results for the third quarter of 2026. Until then, developments in the BASF talks are likely to set the tone in the market.