Evonik Reshapes Itself as BASF Circles and Analysts Split on Value

BASF opened exploratory talks for Evonik; Evonik rejected a EUR 22.15-per-share offer as too low. RAG-Stiftung may sell its stake.

Evonik finds itself pulled in two directions at once. While takeover speculation swirls around the Essen-based specialty chemicals group, management is pressing ahead with a sweeping overhaul of its corporate structure — cutting jobs, shedding subsidiaries and placing selective bets on biotechnology.

The stock has been the beneficiary of the M&A chatter. BASF opened exploratory talks about a potential Evonik acquisition roughly a week ago, and the shares have climbed 5.3% since then to EUR 20.86. That leaves the price just shy of its recent 52-week high of EUR 20.74, though the stock was trading at EUR 20.60 earlier in the day, a modest 0.3% decline.

A Rejected Overture and a Stakeholder's Signal

The courtship has not been smooth. According to Reuters, Evonik turned down an offer from the Ludwigshafen-based chemical giant valued at roughly EUR 22.15 per share, judging it too low. The details of both the bid and the rejection rest on people familiar with the negotiations.

Evonik had previously confirmed receiving an unsolicited approach regarding a possible voluntary public takeover offer for all shares, while making clear that no talks were underway at that point. BASF, for its part, acknowledged the exploratory discussions with Evonik and the RAG-Stiftung but stressed that both the course and the outcome remain entirely open.

The RAG-Stiftung holds a pivotal position. On 30 September, the foundation — Evonik's largest shareholder — stated it could sell its entire stake, signaling a fundamental willingness to negotiate should a financially compelling offer materialize. The foundation later told Reuters that a complete divestment of the Evonik holding is permitted under its statutes, provided the board of trustees gives its approval.

Restructuring on Two Fronts

Parallel to the takeover drama, Evonik is executing a transformation program dubbed "Evonik Tailor Made." Between 2027 and 2029, the group plans to eliminate 3,200 positions worldwide, with roughly 2,150 of those cuts falling at German sites. The company continues to rule out compulsory redundancies as part of this reduction. Major German plants are being assigned specific operational roles, and the portfolio will be managed according to fixed role profiles going forward.

Divestments form the second pillar. Evonik intends to part with two subsidiaries: Oxeno and Syneqt. Interim CEO Claus Rettig has indicated, according to media reports, that results from the Oxeno sales process could emerge before the end of the current year. For Syneqt, the divestment procedure is slated to begin in 2027. Management is also reviewing further moves in the Americas and Asia.

Not everything is about shrinkage. At the Slovenská ?up?a site in Slovakia, construction work on an expansion began on 14 September, with investment volume of around EUR 80 million. Completion is targeted for early 2028, at which point roughly 50 new jobs will be created there.

Two Banks, Two Views

Analysts are far from unanimous on what the stock is worth. DZ Bank analyst Peter Spengler raised his fair value estimate for Evonik from EUR 21 to EUR 22 on 28 September, reiterating a "Buy" rating. Spengler sees additional upside from merger speculation but flags open questions around financing and potential synergies.

Deutsche Bank Research takes a more cautious line. The analysis house kept its rating at "Hold" on Thursday with a price target of EUR 18, suggesting that after the recent run-up, the analysts see little room for further gains.

The next scheduled financial checkpoint is 3 November 2026, when Evonik publishes its quarterly statement for the third quarter. Until then, the interplay between takeover speculation and valuation limits is likely to dominate trading in the shares.