Evonik Analysts Split on Valuation Even as Earnings Jump 40%

Evonik's stronger third-quarter results have produced a split verdict on the stock, with two major research houses keeping cautious ratings despite a sharp improvement in profitability. Berenberg raised its price target on the chemicals maker from EUR 20.00 to EUR 22.50 today, according to media reports, but stopped short of upgrading the shares from "Hold." Deutsche Bank Research, by contrast, left both its rating and its EUR 18 target untouched.

The divergence matters for anyone reading the two notes as a single signal. Only one of the two houses has lifted its valuation benchmark, and neither has turned more constructive on the investment case. The stock was trading at EUR 21.32, up 2.2% on the day — a gain that sits alongside, rather than because of, the unchanged recommendations.

A target is not a recommendation

Berenberg's move puts its new target above the current share price, leaving room on paper for further upside. Yet a price target is an estimate of value, not a promise of future performance, and the "Hold" tag attached to it limits what the upgrade actually says. Investors would be wrong to read a higher number as a more bullish call.

The DZ Bank took the opposite route. It cut Evonik from "Buy" to "Hold" yesterday while keeping its fair value at EUR 22, media reports said. So the two houses arrive at similarly wait-and-see stances by different paths: Berenberg marked its valuation up, while DZ Bank withdrew its buy case without touching its fair value.

The numbers behind the debate

The operating backdrop came from Evonik's quarterly report yesterday. Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 rose 13% year on year to EUR 3.825 billion, while adjusted EBITDA climbed 40% to EUR 629 million. Earnings therefore grew considerably faster than sales — an improvement in the business, not a deterioration, which is the context in which the analysts' restraint should be read.

Looking beyond the quarter, Evonik said it expects full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the upper half of its guidance range of EUR 2.0 billion to EUR 2.2 billion. That is a company forecast, not a result already banked, and it gives the market a yardstick stretching past the just-closed period.

What the notes actually say

Set against those figures, Berenberg's higher target fits the stronger earnings. What it does not do is convert the improvement into a buy case, and Deutsche Bank's unchanged EUR 18 target underlines how far apart the two houses remain on value. The takeaway for investors is not that the operating recovery has stalled — the quarterly numbers argue otherwise. It is that a higher valuation benchmark and a more positive recommendation are two separate things, and only one of them has moved.