Evonik Analysts Diverge as BASF's Rejected €22.15 Bid Collides With a 55% Rally

Evonik stock sits 0.4% below its 52-week peak after a 55% YTD gain, as BASF takeover talk divides analysts ahead of Q3 results on 3 November.

Evonik's stock ended Friday's session at €20.66, leaving the specialty chemicals maker's shares just 0.4% shy of their 52-week peak of €20.74. The year-to-date advance now stands at 55%, a run that has been powered less by the company's own earnings than by the prospect of consolidation in the German chemicals sector.

That gap between market enthusiasm and operating reality has opened a rare split among the analysts who cover the Essen-based group. Deutsche Bank Research moved to a "Hold" rating on Thursday with an €18 price target. Analyst Virginie Boucher-Ferte expects third-quarter EBITDA of €640 million and argues the current valuation leans primarily on takeover speculation rather than on the underlying business.

The DZ BANK took the opposite tack on 29 September. Analyst Peter Spengler reaffirmed his buy recommendation and lifted his fair value estimate to €22, citing the additional upside embedded in the takeover narrative. Even that more bullish call came with caveats: how a combination would be financed, what synergies could realistically be extracted, and where the RAG-Stiftung stands all remain unanswered.

A Bid Dismissed, a Suitor Undeterred

At the center of the speculation is BASF, Evonik's larger Ludwigshafen-based rival. According to Reuters, Evonik turned down an approach valued at roughly €22.15 per share as too low, a figure attributed to two people familiar with the matter. Evonik declined to comment, and BASF would not be drawn on the specific price.

The overture first became public about a week earlier, when Evonik confirmed it had received a non-binding offer for a voluntary public takeover of all its shares. The company stressed at the time that no talks are currently under way. BASF acknowledged exploratory discussions with both Evonik and the RAG-Stiftung while describing the course and outcome as open, and the RAG-Stiftung separately confirmed BASF had made contact. Handelsblatt later reported that BASF is nonetheless sticking to its acquisition plans.

Restructuring Runs in Parallel

While the ownership question hangs in the air, Evonik is pressing ahead with its own overhaul. Under the "Evonik Tailor Made" program, management announced roughly two weeks ago that 3,200 positions will be cut worldwide, with about 2,150 of those losses falling at German sites. The company is redefining the roles of its German locations and individual business units, and is simultaneously weighing further investment in Asia and the Americas.

The second phase of the program is set to run from 2027 through 2029. Management frames the cuts as a way to sharpen its growth targets, improve operating performance and make the group more resilient to swings in the economic cycle, all in response to a demanding market environment for the chemicals industry. The goal remains a leaner cost base.

The Next Real Test

Short-term attention now shifts to the financial calendar. Evonik will publish its third-quarter 2026 results on 3 November 2026. That interim report will be the first hard evidence of whether operating earnings can keep pace with a share price that has been driven largely by events outside the company's control — and whether Evonik completes its transformation alone or sees its ownership structure reshaped by an external bid in the months ahead.