Equinor Wins BofA Upgrade as Winter Gas Bets and Asian LNG Push Converge

BofA lifted Equinor to Buy with a NOK 465 target, citing cash generation and gas upside, as Goldman Sachs kept its sell rating.

Bank of America has turned bullish on Equinor, lifting the Norwegian energy major from "Neutral" to "Buy" and attaching a 465.00 Norwegian kroner price target to the stock. The upgrade, issued yesterday, rests on two pillars: stronger cash generation than the market has priced in, and what the analysts regard as an undervalued upside in the company's natural gas business.

The call lands at a moment when the shares are already trading near their highs. Equinor closed Friday at EUR 38.44, a modest 0.4 percent decline, yet that figure sits just 3.0 percent below the 52-week peak of EUR 39.64. Since the start of the year, the equity has climbed 92 percent, placing it among the sector's standout performers.

A House Divided on Valuation

Not every analyst shares Bank of America's enthusiasm. Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its sell rating on September 9, pointing to the possibility of normalizing energy markets and cyclical headwinds. The bull case counters that resilient gas prices and disciplined capital spending will keep free cash flow humming at the state-controlled group.

The split reflects a broader debate about how much of the gas story is already baked into the price. BofA Securities' commodity team expects European TTF gas to average EUR 95 per megawatt hour over the coming winter — more than 20 percent above the current futures curve. Should that forecast materialize, Equinor, as one of the continent's key suppliers, would capture the upside directly through its earnings.

Buybacks Keep Rolling

Capital returns have provided a steady undercurrent of support. Equinor disclosed Tuesday that it repurchased 683,570 of its own shares between September 7 and 11 under the third tranche of this year's buyback program, at an average price of NOK 406.9977. On the same day, the company reported acquiring a further 379,361 shares on the Oslo exchange at an average of NOK 419.1253 for employee share programs.

The current tranche carries a volume of up to USD 1.125 billion, part of a broader plan targeting as much as USD 3 billion in repurchases for the year. A fixed cash dividend of USD 0.39 per share was paid for the second quarter.

LNG Reach Extends Into Southeast Asia

Operationally, Equinor continues to widen its global gas footprint. Yesterday it signed a long-term liquefied natural gas supply agreement with Thailand's PTT International Trading, extending its sales base into Southeast Asia. Neither party disclosed contract duration, volumes, or financial terms, but the deal signals the group's intent to lock in LNG volumes beyond its traditional European routes.

That move follows the company's first cargo under existing contracts with U.S. producer Cheniere, lifted roughly two weeks ago at the Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana. The stock has added 2.4 percent since that delivery.

Earnings Power and the Risks That Could Undo It

The fundamental backdrop remains solid. Equinor posted an adjusted operating profit of USD 11.48 billion and net income of USD 4.84 billion in the second quarter of 2026. Production averaged 2,165 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day. Analyst H. Engel of Erste Group Bank raised his full-year 2026 earnings per share estimate on September 8, from USD 5.09 to USD 5.18.

Yet the outlook hinges on whether European gas prices actually deliver during the heating season. A mild winter would soften TTF quotations and squeeze operating margins, while the high expectations embedded in current estimates leave little room for disappointment in the fourth quarter.

There are operational risks too. Management has maintained its 2026 production growth target of 3 percent despite difficulties at the Johan Castberg offshore field. Worsening technical hurdles there could trigger output shortfalls and put the full-year goal in jeopardy.

What to Watch Next

The next hard milestone for investors arrives on October 26, 2026, when the third buyback tranche concludes. Third-quarter production figures will follow, giving shareholders a clearer read on whether volumes have tracked management's guidance — and whether the board will stretch its capital return framework through the final months of the year.