Deutsche Telekom: A Tight Rope Walk Between Buyback Support and Slowing US Momentum

Deutsche Telekom shares trade in a narrow band around €27 as T-Mobile US subscriber growth decelerates, offset by ongoing buybacks and raised cash flow guidance.

The Deutsche Telekom share is treading water in a narrow band around €27, as investors weigh the mechanical support from a continuing share buyback against mounting evidence that the growth engine at T-Mobile US is losing some of its spark. The stock closed Thursday at €26.93, marking a 10.82% gain over the past 30 days, yet that recovery remains tentative — the price still sits 21.60% below its 52-week high of €34.35.

The next major test arrives on August 6, when the Bonn-based group releases its second-quarter and first-half results. All eyes will be on whether the deceleration in T-Mobile US customer additions, reported on July 23, has begun to dent the parent company's bottom line. The US subsidiary remains the dominant profit contributor, meaning any softening there reverberates directly through the group's valuation.

T-Mobile's Mixed Signals

T-Mobile US added fewer new subscribers in its latest quarter than in prior months, though the figure still managed to beat analyst estimates. That nuance matters: the pace is slowing even if the absolute numbers continue to surprise on the upside. The US arm also raised its full-year guidance for adjusted free cash flow to a range of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion, up from $18.2 billion to $18.6 billion previously, delivering a strong quarter that provided some counterweight to the subscriber slowdown.

The parent company confirmed its own 2026 targets on July 26, sticking with adjusted EBITDA AL of roughly €47.5 billion and free cash flow AL of about €19.8 billion. Whether the US tailwind translates into group-level numbers will determine whether the stock can break out of its current consolidation pattern.

Buyback Momentum Continues

The share repurchase program remains a steady source of demand. Deutsche Telekom bought back 1,353,640 of its own shares between July 20 and July 24 at a weighted average price of approximately €26.70. Since the start of the current tranche on July 1, the total stands at 5,026,915 shares repurchased. With the program running through the end of 2026 and a total volume of up to €2 billion, these buybacks are removing stock from the market on a regular basis and providing a floor under the share price independent of the US news flow.

Management has also repeatedly stated that it has no plans to sell any T-Mobile US shares this year, pushing back against persistent speculation about a rushed separation from the American business. That clarity helps redirect investor attention toward organic growth, reinforced by the group's secured TV rights for the 2030 World Cup in its home market — a sign that the company is working to broaden its revenue base.

Analyst Caution Creeps In

Despite the operational strength in the US, two major houses trimmed their price targets this week. JPMorgan cut its target from €40 to €38 on July 27 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating, citing updated estimates for the US business. The DZ Bank followed the next day, lowering its target from €37 to €35 while keeping a "Buy" recommendation. Both institutions remain well above the current trading level, suggesting they still see meaningful upside — but the downward revisions signal that the near-term outlook has become more clouded.

Technical Picture: Neutral but Fragile

The chart offers little directional clarity. The stock sits just 0.42% below its 50-day moving average of €27.04, and the relative strength index at 52.0 points to a neutral position that leaves room for further upside. Yet the price remains 5.90% below the 200-day average of €28.62, indicating that the medium-term downtrend has not been decisively broken.

The annualized 30-day volatility stands at 34.01%, suggesting the market still expects significant swings — a sign that the T-Mobile US news flow has not been fully priced in. If US subscriber growth continues to decelerate, the earnings base of the group could come under noticeable pressure, even if absolute figures remain above expectations.

Infrastructure Progress

Away from the quarterly numbers, Deutsche Telekom continues to advance its network buildout. A new mobile site with 4G and 5G technology went live in the Germersheim district on Wednesday, with twelve more sites planned over the next three years. On the fiber front, the company added 240,000 new connected households and businesses in June, bringing the total number of served connections to 13.6 million. These operational milestones provide the foundation on which the August 6 results must demonstrate whether the group's ambitious annual targets can be backed up in hard numbers.

Two Roads Ahead

The near-term path for the stock hinges on two competing forces. If the buyback program continues as planned and the 50-day line at €27.04 holds as support, the case for a continued stabilization strengthens. But a sustained break below that level, combined with confirmation of slowing customer momentum in the US, would likely refocus attention on the 52-week low of €23.54.

Until the half-year report sheds light on whether T-Mobile US profitability can offset the growth deceleration — and whether the persistent merger speculation remains a media narrative or gains substance through official company statements — the stock looks set to remain in its tight trading range, waiting for a catalyst to tip the balance.