Delivery Hero's Two-Front Advance: Raising Targets While Uber's Bid Clock Ticks

Delivery Hero endorses Uber's €41.50/share offer; Q2 GMV up 11.3%, adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to €960M-€1B for 2026.

Delivery Hero shareholders face an unusual dual narrative this autumn. On one side sits the operational story — a company whose second-quarter momentum has prompted management to lift its full-year guidance for the second time in recent months. On the other looms the transactional reality: a €41.50-per-share takeover offer from Uber that the Berlin-based group's management and supervisory boards have now formally endorsed as "appropriate and fair."

The recommendation, issued after both bodies compared the bid against the volume-weighted three-month average share price through May 8, 2026, translates into a premium of roughly 127 percent for investors who accumulated positions before takeover speculation took hold. With Uber already controlling more than 53 percent of the company, the tender offer's acceptance window — open since August 27 and running until midnight Frankfurt time on November 5 — gives shareholders just over two months to tender their paper. Full completion of the transaction is anticipated in the second half of 2027.

The market, however, remains circumspect about the timeline. The stock traded recently at €36.57, a discount of nearly €5 to the offer price that reflects both the extended runway to closing and residual execution risk. That gap has narrowed only marginally from levels seen in recent sessions, with the shares hovering about 9.4 percent beneath their 52-week high of €40.49 touched in July. Year-to-date, the equity has still advanced 61 percent, a rally that captures both the operational recovery and the M&A premium embedded in the price.

Acceleration Across the Board

The operational backdrop strengthening management's hand is hard to argue with. Second-quarter gross merchandise volume grew 11.3 percent year-on-year to €13.2 billion, building on an 8.8 percent expansion in the first quarter. Revenue for the period climbed 17.7 percent to €4.0 billion, while first-half sales reached €7.75 billion against €6.88 billion in the prior-year period. Group-wide GMV for the six months rose 10.1 percent like-for-like to €25.7 billion.

Quick commerce remains the standout engine. The segment expanded 32 percent in the second quarter and now accounts for 18.3 percent of total group GMV, with orders through the in-house Dmart rapid-delivery service jumping 39 percent — the strongest pace in over three years.

Profitability metrics tell a more nuanced story. The adjusted EBITDA figure most closely watched by investors advanced 3.9 percent to €427 million in the first half. The bottom line, however, stayed in negative territory at minus €392.4 million, a marginal improvement from the €396.3 million loss recorded a year earlier, with the per-share loss easing to €1.28. Operating results swung to minus €160.1 million from a slim €3.1 million profit in the comparable period.

Guidance Raised, Portfolio Reshaped

Those figures underpin the upgraded outlook. Delivery Hero now targets adjusted EBITDA of €960 million to €1 billion for 2026, up from a prior range of €910 million to €960 million. Revenue growth guidance has been lifted to 17-19 percent like-for-like from 14-16 percent, while GMV expansion is seen at 9-11 percent, compared with an earlier 8-10 percent projection. Free cash flow before special items is expected to exceed €250 million, revised upward from a previous threshold of €200 million.

Alongside the numbers, the company has been advancing its technology agenda. An AI assistant for partner restaurants and shops, introduced in August, autonomously develops promotions, advertising campaigns and menu content. Early adopters among Glovo partners saw order volumes rise 15 percent, and more than 40,000 of the roughly 1.5 million partner businesses have already adopted the tool. A separate AI agent, "Herogen," focused on automated software development, is said by the company to deliver capacity equivalent to around 130 experienced engineers.

The portfolio cleanup accompanying the Uber transaction adds another layer. Operations across 14 markets where Uber Eats is already active are being divested — the primary article cites a $1.6 billion price tag for SSW Partners, while the secondary source puts the figure at €1.4 billion. The Foodpanda-branded Taiwan business is slated to go to rival Grab for $600 million, with completion expected in the fourth quarter.

For investors weighing whether to tender or hold out, the calculus ultimately hinges on a straightforward comparison: the certainty of €41.50 per share against the possibility that operational momentum — or a competing bid — could justify more. With a market capitalization of €11.35 billion and the stock trading just under its 50-day moving average of €37.18, the market's verdict so far suggests patience has its price.