Daimler Truck's North American Surge Lifts Quarterly Profit 73% as Order Gap Clouds Outlook

Daimler Truck has confirmed its full-year guidance despite a striking third-quarter profit jump, putting the durability of the rebound — rather than the size of the gain — at the center of the investment case. Analysts at JPMorgan called the result in line with expectations, while Jefferies flagged a positive outlook for the closing quarter but deemed consensus estimates for the following year ambitious. The earnings leap, in other words, lands against diverging views on what comes next.

Adjusted group EBIT climbed 73% to EUR 1.124 billion in the third quarter of 2026, with worldwide unit sales up 26%. Group earnings rose 73% to EUR 702 million. Industrial revenue advanced 20% to EUR 11.6 billion, and the adjusted industrial return on sales reached 9.1%, up from 6.2% a year earlier and above the confirmed full-year target range of 7–9%.

North America Does the Heavy Lifting

Regional breakdown explains much of the profit surge. North America was the group's main earnings engine, delivering operational tailwind after a weak first half. Deliveries there rose 51% to 45,629 vehicles, and the adjusted margin hit 12.1% — higher volumes paired with markedly better profitability. Higher sales and improved pricing supported the business, and the result also benefited from tariff refunds; JPMorgan attributes part of the strong margin to that effect. How the operational recovery fares without the extra refunds therefore matters for the valuation.

For the fourth quarter of 2026, Daimler Truck expects a North American margin near the upper end of its 9–11% annual guidance — a step down from the 12.1% just posted. At Mercedes-Benz Trucks, by contrast, the finance chief expects the closing-quarter margin to exceed the 6–8% annual forecast, after 6.3% in the third quarter. The guidance thus cuts two ways: normalization of an unusually high North American return, and an improvement at Mercedes-Benz Trucks.

Orders Lag Deliveries for a Second Straight Quarter

Group-wide incoming orders rose 10% to 71,168 vehicles against 91,260 deliveries. In North America, the 45,629 units shipped in the third quarter faced only 29,357 new orders. Order intake has now trailed sales for the second consecutive period and fell short of expectations — a gap that limits visibility on further growth as long as bookings stay behind shipments. Management points to rising freight rates as a growth driver, making demand the test of the recovery.

The skepticism showed up in yesterday's trading, where the stock lost 2.6%. The decline despite profit growth underscores how heavily the sustainability of the upswing weighs on the valuation.

Europe, Cash Flow and the Cost Program

Outside North America, the picture is more mixed. Material costs weighed on Europe and Latin America, even as the Rhein-Neckar-Zeitung reported higher utilization at the Mannheim plant and in city bus production compared with the year-earlier quarter. The "Cost Down Europe" program aims to cut annual European costs by more than EUR 1 billion through 2030, with roughly 5,000 jobs to be shed in Germany.

Cash generation also improved: free cash flow in the industrial business reached EUR 974 million in the third quarter of 2026, partly supported by the sale of ARCHION shares. Over the first nine months, however, adjusted group EBIT stood at EUR 2.46 billion, still 10% below the prior year, while group earnings for the period ran about 30% under the year-earlier level. The strong latest quarter argues for a lasting recovery — provided Daimler Truck underpins North American profitability with fresh demand and hits its European cost targets. The confirmed guidance and better margins point to operational progress; the announced closing-quarter profitability and a steadier order base are what must now come together for the rebound to hold beyond a single strong quarter.