D-Wave Quantum: Two Price Target Cuts, a 19% Bookings Decline and the Commercial Bar It Still Has to Clear

Two brokerages have trimmed their price targets on D-Wave Quantum within a day of each other, and neither cut tells the whole story on its own. Mizuho lowered its target to $23 from $29 on Tuesday while keeping an Outperform rating. A day earlier, B. Riley Securities took its target to $22 from $27 and stayed at Buy. Both houses remain constructive on the stock; both have simply marked down what they think that optimism is worth right now.

The trigger is a third quarter that pulled in two directions. Revenue rose 21% year over year, evidence of a business that is genuinely selling. New bookings, though, fell 19% to $1.9 million — a split signal that sits at the heart of the bear case. The adjusted EBITDA loss widened 83% over the same stretch, and the shares fell 8.6% on the day, with media reports pointing to the earnings miss and the weaker quarterly bookings as the drag.

A Nine-Month Number That Cuts Both Ways

The quarterly figure looks far worse than the year to date, and the gap is instructive. Bookings over the first nine months of 2026 reached $37.4 million, up 611% from the prior-year period. Strip out the headline contracts and the picture changes sharply: a $20 million system sale to Florida Atlantic University and a $10 million licensing deal with a Fortune 100 company dominate the total. Excluding those two and orders from Quantum Circuits, nine-month bookings come to roughly $5.1 million — against $5.3 million a year earlier.

That adjusted view explains why the analysts are tempering their numbers even as they keep their buy-side ratings. The pipeline is real, but its breadth is not yet proven. What would move the needle is repeatable business that reduces reliance on a handful of marquee deals, since recurring contracts would make forecasting considerably easier.

Backlog offers another angle on the same question. Remaining performance obligations stood at $38.3 million at quarter-end, down from $40.7 million in the previous quarter, with D-Wave expecting to recognize 59% of that within a year. Management is looking to the planned Florida Atlantic University delivery for a meaningful slice of fourth-quarter revenue, with further installation revenue following early next year. Execution on that contract is the nearest concrete checkpoint for the top line.

Cash Burn Meets a Policy Tailwind

Funding the build-out is the other half of the story. Operating cash outflow reached $109 million in the first nine months of 2026, more than double the $53.6 million burned a year earlier. Higher operating expenses now have to be carried while revenue recognition depends heavily on the timing of large projects — which puts the focus on whether additional sales eventually arrive with better cost coverage.

The balance sheet provides room to maneuver. D-Wave ended the quarter with $503.4 million in cash and marketable securities, supplemented by an agreed CHIPS award of up to $100 million that pays out against development milestones. Those resources buy time, provided the company meets the grant conditions and keeps spending in check.

Technical Wins Still Waiting on the Ledger

The product side has not stood still. The updated version of the company's Stride hybrid solver reached better solutions in 15 seconds than its predecessor managed in 120 seconds, according to D-Wave. Research published about a week ago offers an application angle as well: Florida Atlantic University researchers, using an approach built on D-Wave hardware, achieved 91.90% accuracy in a lung-cancer prognosis study, though they explicitly described the results as preliminary.

Faster optimization and early-stage research strengthen the long-term case only to the extent that they translate into durable applications and demand. That is the thread running through both analyst notes. Mizuho's lower target sets a plain standard: the positive rating needs more signed contracts and a reliable conversion of backlog into revenue. B. Riley's cut says much the same in different terms — confidence in the opportunity, paired with reduced expectations for what it is worth today. Higher bookings and a narrower loss would underwrite the technology story. Until then, the commercial test comes first.