D-Wave Quantum's Two-Sided Rally: A Nasdaq Deal and Analyst Backing Set Up Thursday's Earnings Test

D-Wave shares jump 15% on partnership and bullish analyst rating, but Q2 revenue expected to stay weak amid strong bookings.

The quantum computing sector has a habit of swinging between euphoria and skepticism, and D-Wave Quantum is currently embodying both extremes at once. The stock's recent climb — fueled by a fresh partnership with Nasdaq Verafin and a bullish new price target from Wedbush — has pushed shares to roughly €17.80 on German trading platforms, a gain of nearly 15 percent over the past week. Yet the real verdict arrives Thursday, when the company reports second-quarter results before US markets open.

The Monday catalyst that lifted the whole sector

A single trading session captured the market's mood perfectly. D-Wave jumped 11.17 percent to close at €17.41 on Monday, driven by two simultaneous developments. The company announced a proof-of-concept project with Nasdaq Verafin to explore whether quantum annealing can detect financial crime — specifically fraud, account takeovers, and money laundering — by processing hundreds of data inputs simultaneously, including account behavior, transaction histories, and business relationships. It's a use case that extends beyond D-Wave's traditional aerospace and logistics focus, and CEO Alan Baratz framed it as an application of the company's quantum-hybrid technology to machine learning.

The second catalyst came from Wedbush. Analyst Matt Bryson initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $40 price target — roughly double the current trading level. That kind of conviction from a major firm carries weight in a sector where commercial viability is still being proven.

The enthusiasm wasn't confined to D-Wave. Rigetti Computing advanced 9 percent and Quantum Computing rose 8 percent without any company-specific news, suggesting a broader risk-on mood in the sector following a period of heavy selling. A calmer geopolitical backdrop — President Trump called off strikes on Iran, easing Middle East tensions — helped lift the Nasdaq 100 by 1.52 percent, providing additional tailwind.

The uncomfortable gap between orders and revenue

For all the recent momentum, the fundamental picture remains a study in contrasts. First-quarter new bookings hit $33.4 million, a nearly 2,000 percent surge year over year, while backlog climbed to $42.4 million. The sales pipeline more than doubled in value, and average deal size grew at a similar clip. Management even raised its 2026 system sales forecast from one to two or three units.

But revenue tells a different story. First-quarter sales collapsed 81 percent to just $2.9 million, largely because the prior-year period included a large system sale that didn't repeat. Management has already signaled that second-quarter revenue will only modestly exceed the first quarter, with the bulk of earnings recognition pushed into the second half of the year.

This disconnect between the order book and the income statement is the central tension investors must weigh. The company's revenue profile remains structurally dependent on a handful of large, irregularly timed system sales — a pattern that leaves the income statement vulnerable whenever a single deal slips across a quarter boundary.

What Thursday's report will reveal

The earnings call, led by Baratz and CFO John Markovich at 8 AM Eastern Time, will test whether the commercial momentum visible in the pipeline is translating into actual billings. Bulls point to the expanded AT&T collaboration and progress on Quantum Circuits integration as evidence that demand is broadening across both annealing and gate-model technologies. If backlog growth remains in triple digits and the commercial customer mix continues improving, the stock could retest its 50-day moving average near €19.35.

Bears counter that the cost side is deteriorating. Adjusted operating losses widened significantly in the first quarter, and if expenses continue growing faster than revenue, questions about cash burn will intensify. The stock's 10 percent decline over the past month and its distance from prior highs suggest investors are already tempering their expectations.

The numbers frame the risk clearly. At roughly €17.80, the stock sits about 60 percent above its 52-week low of €11.12 from March, yet remains more than 50 percent below its October 2025 peak of €38.48. The 30-day volatility reading — around 101 to 103 percent annualized depending on the calculation — underscores just how news-driven and speculative this market has become.

Thursday's report will show whether the Nasdaq Verafin partnership and Wedbush's confidence are backed by operational substance. If the pipeline stalls, losses exceed expectations, or commercial revenue gives way to irregular government and research contracts, the stock could slide back toward the €11.12 level. If bookings growth persists and the commercial share expands, the current rally may prove to be more than just anticipation. Either way, the market won't have to wait long for answers.