D-Wave Quantum: A $40 Price Target, a CGI Handshake, and 7.1 Million Shares Waiting in the Wings

B. Riley keeps buy rating and $40 target as D-Wave stock falls 32% YTD; CGI partnership lacks contract value and a share resale looms.

D-Wave Quantum finds itself caught in a familiar quantum-computing bind: the technology press releases keep coming, but the revenue line has yet to follow. On Monday, B. Riley Securities analyst Craig Ellis reaffirmed his buy rating on the stock and left his $40 price target untouched — a figure that implies staggering upside from the current level of EUR 15.32. The market, however, has been in no mood to celebrate. Year to date, the shares are down 32%, a reminder that investors have grown weary of funding a vision without seeing the invoices.

That tension between promise and proof sits at the heart of the company's story right now. Quantum machines are pitched as tools that will eventually chew through optimization problems at speeds classical computers cannot match. But after years of goodwill from the capital markets, the burden has shifted: D-Wave must now show that its architecture works not just in the lab, but on the balance sheet.

A Partnership Without a Price Tag

Wednesday brought fresh headlines in the form of a go-to-market alliance with IT services provider CGI. Under the arrangement, CGI will fold D-Wave's Advantage2 quantum computer and its hybrid solvers into its own technology and service stack, aiming at optimization challenges in logistics, rail and transport, and retail.

Teaming up with a globally established integrator is, without question, a meaningful validation step for the practical readiness of D-Wave's systems. Yet shareholders are left with a notable gap: the agreement specifies neither a contract value nor any committed revenue. That omission captures the structural dilemma of commercial quantum projects. Strategic partnerships and pilot programs generate a steady stream of upbeat announcements, but they do not reliably fill the coffers. Until technology-focused letters of intent turn into recurring, paid deployments, the valuation remains vulnerable to setbacks.

Boardroom Credentials and a Leadership Handover

On the governance front, D-Wave moved Monday to bolster its institutional profile, appointing Bernard Gavgani to its Board of Directors and its cybersecurity committee. Gavgani, a technology advisor and former CIO of BNP Paribas, brings deep experience running global IT and banking infrastructure. The appointment took effect September 18, with Gavgani joining as an independent Class II director. Moves like this should help the company build credibility with demanding enterprise customers.

The boardroom shuffle comes alongside a transition in the finance department. Roughly three weeks ago, Greg Golkov stepped in as Acting Chief Financial Officer and principal financial and accounting officer, while the search for a permanent finance chief continues.

Federal Backing and an Asian Foothold

D-Wave is also leaning on government support at home. A finalized agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce gives the company access to as much as $100 million under the U.S. CHIPS and Science Act — funding earmarked to extend its technological leadership in quantum computing.

Internationally, management is pressing ahead with its outreach. A user conference, Qubits Asia, is scheduled for October 28, 2026, in Seoul, where the company plans to deepen dialogue with Asian users and partners on industrial applications.

The Overhang Investors Keep Forgetting

For all the operational news, market participants should not lose sight of the risk factors sitting outside the day-to-day business. Back on September 10, D-Wave filed a prospectus supplement formally registering the resale of up to 7,095,721 shares by an existing shareholder. Not a cent of any such transactions flows to the company itself. For the market, though, a block of that size represents a latent supply overhang. Should those shares be unloaded through the exchange, they would likely create meaningful headwinds for any sustained recovery attempt.

In Tuesday's session, traders responded coolly to the recent developments. The stock slipped 1.1% to EUR 15.20, having closed the prior day at EUR 15.36.

The Ball Is in Management's Court

D-Wave's technological ingenuity is not in dispute. What is ending is the era in which concept alone commanded a premium. Over the coming quarters, investors will learn whether collaborations like the CGI tie-up actually convert into profitable orders. With federal funding, system-integrator partnerships, and a strengthened governance lineup now in place, the company is trying to lay the commercial groundwork for the leap from research project to regular production operation. Until it delivers evidence of economic scaling, the risks arguably outweigh the analysts' lofty targets. D-Wave has to prove its machines work not only in the lab — but in the accounts.