Commerzbank's Chairman Tells Berlin to Hold Its Fire as UniCredit's Stake Creeps Toward 50%

Jens Weidmann asks Germany not to sell its Commerzbank stake until UniCredit talks yield a viable outcome, as UniCredit's voting rights near 50%.

The German state has become the final piece on the chessboard in the Commerzbank takeover saga, and the bank's supervisory board chairman is now publicly urging the government not to move it.

Jens Weidmann has asked Berlin to refrain from selling its roughly 13 percent stake in the Frankfurt-based lender, according to reports from Handelsblatt and Süddeutsche Zeitung. The request lands at a delicate moment: UniCredit's economic interest in Commerzbank has quietly swelled to nearly half the company, and formal talks between the two banks' chief executives have only just begun.

Weidmann's intervention is not a rejection of the Italian bank's advance. He has previously acknowledged where the power balance lies and expressed willingness to engage constructively. Instead, the chairman appears focused on the terms and timing of any potential state exit — making clear that the government should not unload its shares until negotiations between UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel and Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp produce a viable outcome.

A Technical Quirk Reshapes the Ownership Math

The arithmetic behind UniCredit's position has shifted in ways that go beyond the Italian bank's own buying. Following the conclusion of its exchange offer in July, UniCredit held roughly 47.6 percent of Commerzbank. But the completion of a share buyback program — and the subsequent cancellation of those repurchased shares — has mechanically lifted UniCredit's stake to approximately 49.7 percent of voting rights, without the Italians purchasing a single additional share.

The buyback itself was substantial. The ECB approved a new repurchase program of up to €1.2 billion, and the cancellation of previously bought-back shares has now been finalized. It is one of several levers Commerzbank is pulling as it navigates the takeover landscape.

The bank's operating performance provides another. First-half 2026 net profit came in at €1.81 billion, with operating profit climbing 14 percent to €2.7 billion. The second quarter alone delivered €898 million in net profit, comfortably beating the €856 million analysts had penciled in. On the back of those numbers, management lifted its full-year net profit guidance from "more than €3.2 billion" to "at least €3.4 billion."

The first quarter had already set a record: operating profit rose 11 percent to €1.4 billion. Together, these figures give Weidmann ammunition to argue that Commerzbank can negotiate from strength rather than under pressure to sell.

Berlin's Dilemma and the ECB's Lean

The German government had signaled in late July, per Bloomberg, that parts of the Berlin leadership were open to selling their stake — but only if agreement could be reached on strategy and the future direction of the bank. Weidmann's latest move is a direct response to that condition: no state exit until the Orcel-Orlopp talks yield something substantive.

The regulatory picture appears increasingly favorable to a deal. Reuters reported, citing an internal document presented to the ECB's supervisory board, that the central bank leans toward approving the takeover. A formal green light is still pending and expected in the autumn, but the supervisory hurdle looks likely to clear — which throws even more weight onto the question of who holds the remaining shares and at what price.

The takeover offer itself expired in July, with 17.6 percent of Commerzbank shares tendered, of which only 2.7 percent came from institutional and retail investors. Weidmann has also warned of gaps in takeover law related to the UniCredit offer, adding a legal dimension to the political and regulatory layers already in play.

Integration Talks Begin Beneath the Surface

While the ownership question remains unresolved, operational preparations are underway. Orcel and Orlopp have held their first formal discussions, covering integration matters in accounting, legal, and risk management functions — a sign that both sides are already preparing for possible shared structures even as the shareholder puzzle remains incomplete.

Analysts have responded to the strong results with upgraded assessments. DZ Bank raised its fair value for the stock to €46 with a "Buy" rating, while Deutsche Bank Research kept its price target at €42 with a "Buy" recommendation. Both signals point to further upside from current levels.

The market has taken notice. The shares closed Monday at €39.51, just 1.5 percent below the 52-week high of €40.11 set on August 13. Over the past 30 days, the stock has gained 5.3 percent, and it is up 9.4 percent year-to-date. Market capitalization stands at roughly €42.16 billion.

For investors, the interplay between record earnings, a likely ECB approval, and the political tug-of-war over the state's stake remains the dominant driver. How long Berlin holds its ground will go a long way toward determining when — and on what terms — the takeover saga reaches its conclusion.