Commerzbank's Buyback Rolls On as Analysts Trim Ratings and Berlin Presses UniCredit for Commitments

Commerzbank repurchased 2,037,832 shares in late September as Deutsche Bank and RBC cut ratings amid UniCredit takeover uncertainty.

Commerzbank kept its capital-return machinery running through late September, repurchasing 2,037,832 of its own shares between September 21 and September 25 under its existing buyback program. The Frankfurt lender's stock closed Friday at EUR 39.08, up 8.2% since the start of the year — a gain that has survived a week of rating cuts and mounting uncertainty over who will ultimately control the bank.

That uncertainty now sits at the center of how the market values Commerzbank. Deutsche Bank Research downgraded the shares from "Buy" to "Hold" on Wednesday, keeping its price target at EUR 42 but pointing to doubts about the bank's strategic direction. RBC followed on Friday, cutting its rating from "Outperform" to "Sector Perform" and lowering its target to EUR 40 from EUR 43, with analyst Anke Reingen citing higher cost of equity. Investors, in other words, are increasingly pricing in the risk that Commerzbank's independence and operating plans get bogged down by the advances from Milan.

Berlin Wants Commitments, Milan Wants the Board

The political backdrop has grown more pointed. According to Reuters, citing government sources, the German government is pushing UniCredit for swift and binding guarantees — protecting jobs, keeping the headquarters in Frankfurt, maintaining the stock exchange listing and securing financing for Germany's mid-sized businesses. UniCredit said it welcomes the dialogue and is optimistic about the outcome.

Reports suggest the Italian bank has bigger plans in mind. The Financial Times reported that UniCredit intends to call an extraordinary general meeting once outstanding regulatory approvals are in hand, aiming to replace all ten shareholder representatives on the 20-member supervisory board. A possible removal of Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp has also been reported. UniCredit has signaled, according to government circles, that Commerzbank should remain listed and keep its Frankfurt base, and that it wants to expand the bank's Mittelstand business.

Orlopp's Standalone Pitch

Against that pressure, Orlopp is making the case for going it alone. In a September 25 interview with Swiss business paper Finanz und Wirtschaft, she confirmed the bank intends to hold on to its Swiss operations and stressed a willingness to engage constructively with UniCredit — while emphasizing that she wants to create more standalone value for shareholders and stakeholders.

The bank is also working to demonstrate organic momentum. On Thursday, Commerzbank and its comdirect subsidiary published a YouGov survey on the planned state-backed retirement savings account. Of more than 1,500 respondents, 38% said they were likely to open such a product, with interest rising to 47% among younger customers aged 18 to 25. The survey underscores the lender's ambition to grow market share in German deposits and securities savings on its own terms.

What Comes Next

The next hard data point arrives on November 5, when the board publishes third-quarter 2026 results. Until then, the trajectory of the share price — and the credibility of the standalone strategy — will hinge largely on how quickly the ownership question is resolved.