Commerzbank Keeps Buying Back Stock as UniCredit's Regulatory Wait Stretches Into 2027

Commerzbank has repurchased 6,255,093 shares since 3 September under its EUR 1.2 billion buyback, as UniCredit holds 49.65% of voting rights.

Commerzbank is pressing ahead with its capital return programme at full tilt, even as the ownership question hanging over the Frankfurt lender remains unresolved well into next year.

The shares changed hands at EUR 42.58 on the day, up 0.8%, leaving the stock roughly 1.8% below its 52-week high of EUR 43.34. In pre-market trading on Monday morning the paper had held steady at EUR 42.20, and since the start of the year the gain amounts to 17%.

Buyback on Track Since Early September

The lender launched a repurchase programme worth up to EUR 1.2 billion at the start of September, with the first purchases dated 3 September 2026. The scheme runs until 10 February 2027 at the latest, and every share acquired under it is earmarked for cancellation.

Regulatory disclosures show 2,037,832 shares were bought between 21 and 25 September, bringing the total repurchased since launch to 6,255,093 units. A separate filing covering 14 to 18 September recorded 1,976,889 shares, following more than 2.24 million papers in the prior week. At one point during September alone, the bank had picked up 2,240,372 of its own shares.

The buybacks form part of a broader distribution plan for the 2026 financial year. Management is targeting a total payout of EUR 3.2 billion, anchored to an intended net profit of at least EUR 3.4 billion. At least half of that sum is to reach shareholders as dividends, with the remainder channelled into the repurchase of its own stock.

Guidance Reaffirmed Despite the Noise

Speaking at an investor conference on Thursday, chief executive Bettina Orlopp stressed that the bank is sticking to its operating targets. Confirmed forecasts for 2026 include net interest income of EUR 8.6 billion, a group profit of EUR 3.4 billion and risk costs of EUR 850 million. The full 100% capital return policy also stays in place.

Orlopp expects the regulatory approvals for UniCredit's stake to arrive only at the end of 2026 or the beginning of 2027. Until banking supervisors rule on the Milan-based group's plans, Commerzbank will continue to run itself independently and focus on its own strategy — a window the management intends to use to entrench that course and create value for shareholders.

UniCredit Holds Nearly Half the Votes

That independence plays out against a fundamentally reshaped shareholder register. UniCredit reached a capital stake of 47.59% in Commerzbank after completing its takeover offer, a holding that carries 49.65% of voting rights. By the time the additional acceptance period closed on 3 July 2026, 17.6% of Commerzbank shares had been tendered to the Italian bank, giving it a dominant position among shareholders without crossing the threshold for full integration.

For investors, the open question is how the two houses will ultimately be arranged. On one hand, the buyback strengthens Commerzbank's remaining free float and returns surplus equity. On the other, each cancelled share mathematically lifts the proportional weight of the large shareholders who stay.

Three Routes Out of the Impasse

According to Reuters, Orlopp has floated alternative scenarios should talks deepen. These include a direct merger, a second public takeover offer from the Italians at a premium, or the acquisition of UniCredit's German subsidiary HypoVereinsbank in exchange for newly issued Commerzbank shares.

Hard bargaining over locations and leadership posts is taking shape alongside those options. UniCredit is reportedly pushing for personnel changes at the top, while Commerzbank has firmly rejected any interference in its management.

Berlin is also setting guardrails. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil demanded that the head office stay in Frankfurt, that the bank remain listed and that lending to the domestic mid-sized business sector continue reliably. Klingbeil reiterated the expectation that Commerzbank remains a listed stock corporation headquartered in Frankfurt, keeps its Mittelstand business unchanged and safeguards the interests of its 40,000 employees. The government is additionally seeking two seats on the bank's supervisory board.

Until the supervisors decide, Commerzbank continues to operate on its own terms.