Commerzbank Keeps Buying Back Stock as UniCredit Circles and Analysts Step Back

Commerzbank repurchased 1,871,048 shares from Sept 28 to Oct 2, bringing its buyback total to 8,126,141, as two brokerages downgraded the stock.

Commerzbank spent the final days of September and the opening of October steadily mopping up its own shares, even as the broader story around the Frankfurt lender grew considerably more complicated. The bank disclosed that it repurchased 1,871,048 of its own shares on the market between September 28 and October 2 inclusive. Since the program kicked off on September 4, the cumulative tally has reached 8,126,141 shares.

The buyback is proceeding exactly as management laid out, and it stands in sharp contrast to the mounting uncertainty swirling around the bank's ownership structure. Commerzbank's stock rose 2.1% on Tuesday to EUR 40.09, a move that had no company-specific trigger. Instead, it tracked a broad advance across European equity markets ahead of the looming earnings season, helped by easing pressure on longer-dated bonds and softer oil prices, according to Reuters. Market participants are watching the approaching reporting period closely, with interest rate trends and the economic outlook remaining the central themes for the financial sector.

Two Downgrades in Three Days

The more sobering news has come from the analyst community. RBC Capital Markets cut Commerzbank from "Outperform" to "Sector Perform" on Friday, trimming its price target from EUR 43 to EUR 40. The brokerage pointed to heightened execution risks tied to UniCredit's plans, Reuters reported. That followed a move on September 30, when Deutsche Bank Research lowered its rating from "Buy" to "Hold" while leaving its EUR 42 target untouched. Deutsche Bank's reasoning: the key share price drivers have largely been realized or are already priced in. Together, the two houses signal that room for near-term upside may be limited.

Orcel's Boardroom Play

The analysts' caution lands amid significant turbulence at the top of the company. Roughly a week ago, UniCredit stepped up its pursuit of Commerzbank, a move that has since knocked the shares down 6.2%. According to the Financial Times, UniCredit chief Andrea Orcel intends to call an extraordinary general meeting of Commerzbank once the necessary regulatory approvals are secured. The goal is to reshape the supervisory board and remove Commerzbank CEO Bettina Orlopp. January or late February are seen as plausible windows for seizing control.

Political obstacles are emerging in parallel. About a week ago, the German government demanded binding commitments from UniCredit regarding German locations and job retention, even as the Milan-based institution continues to expand its influence.

A Retirement Product Bet

On the operational front, Commerzbank is pressing ahead with efforts to project continuity and open new growth avenues. On October 1, the bank and its comdirect subsidiary presented a joint YouGov survey on the planned retirement savings account. The poll found that 38% of respondents consider opening such a product likely, with the share rising to 47% among 18- to 25-year-olds. Ahead of the targeted subsidy launch in 2027, the lender is preparing its own offering built around actively managed multi-asset funds.

Greater clarity on the bank's business condition should arrive in the coming weeks. Commerzbank has scheduled the release of its third-quarter 2026 figures for November 5. In today's trading, the stock gained 1.8% to EUR 39.96.