Commerzbank: A Buyback Running on Autopilot While UniCredit's Control Plans Wait at the Door

Commerzbank has repurchased 14,271,110 of its own shares since 4 September, the lender disclosed on Monday — a figure that captures completed transactions rather than any fresh decision on capital returns. The buyback, which saw 3,157,027 shares acquired in the past week alone, is chugging along independently of the takeover saga that continues to swirl around the Frankfurt-based bank.

That distinction matters. Share purchases under an existing programme are not evidence of progress on UniCredit's offer, and the two storylines should be read separately rather than as interchangeable signals.

A Regulatory Green Light, But No Deal Yet

UniCredit cleared a significant hurdle roughly a week ago when the European Central Bank granted it permission to push its stake in Commerzbank past the 30% threshold — and to keep going without any cap. The approval widens the Italian lender's room to build its position. It does not mean that position has been reached, nor does it confirm that every regulatory process has been wrapped up.

The group expects the remaining approvals and offer conditions to be settled by year-end, at which point it anticipates holding around 50% of Commerzbank's voting rights and being in a position to take control. That figure remains a projection, not a current holding.

ver.di Digs In

The union ver.di is having none of it. On 16 October, Jan Duschek, who heads the union's national banking division, reiterated that the ECB's blessing changes nothing about its opposition to the takeover. His statement was aimed squarely at the notion that regulatory clearance might dissolve the resistance — a reminder that supervisory approval and union acceptance are entirely different questions.

Political talks are also part of the open-ended process. Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil described discussions on Friday as constructive, according to media reports, citing Frankfurt as a location, the interests of employees and mid-sized business financing as themes. A positive account of a conversation, however, is not the same as a signed agreement.

Two Clocks, One Calendar

Investors waiting on the operating side have a date to circle: Commerzbank's third-quarter 2026 results are scheduled for release on 5 November 2026. That event speaks to business performance and sits apart from the question of who ultimately controls the bank.

UniCredit may keep adding to its stake and has a concrete control target in sight. ver.di, for its part, is holding firm to its rejection. Neither the ECB's permission nor UniCredit's own expectations should be mistaken for a completed takeover — and the buyback, however steady, tells you nothing about how the bid will end.