Circus SE’s Chairman Buys the Dip, but the Market Keeps Selling

Insider buying fails to halt Circus SE's slide as revenue forecast cut from €55M to €5.2M, stock drops 67% in 30 days, while defense division tests robots in Ukraine.

A board member stepped in to buy shares at €2.15, betting the sell-off had gone too far. Within days, the stock was trading 15% below that level. The episode at Circus SE illustrates just how powerless insider confidence can be when a company slashes its own revenue forecast by more than 90%.

The Hamburg-based robotics firm has seen its market value shrink to roughly €50 million after a brutal 30-day rout that wiped out 67% of the share price. On Thursday, the stock fell another 5.85% to €1.83, extending a decline that began when management issued a stunning revision to its 2026 outlook.

A Revenue Reset That Shook the Foundation

What had been billed as a path to as much as €55 million in annual revenue by 2026 has been slashed to just €5.2 million. The company also warned that its EBITDA loss would widen to around €17 million, far worse than the €6 million to €8 million range previously communicated. The culprit: delayed system deliveries as Circus prioritizes unit economics over the rapid scaling it had once promised.

The revision triggered an immediate response from the analyst community. Montega cut its price target from €10.00 to €2.20 and downgraded the stock from “Buy” to “Hold,” citing the strategic pivot away from scaling its kitchen-robot systems toward profitability per unit. mwb research slashed its target even more dramatically, from €46.00 to €8.40, though it maintained a “Speculative Buy” rating.

Insider Buying Meets a Wall of Skepticism

On July 20, the same day Montega delivered its downgrade, Dr. Jan-Christian Heins, a member of Circus’s board of directors, purchased a block of shares at an average price of €2.15. Insider purchases are typically read as a vote of confidence in a company’s long-term prospects. In this case, the market has so far treated the signal as noise.

The stock now trades roughly 15% below Heins’s entry point, a stark reminder that operational risk and shattered revenue expectations can outweigh even the most well-intentioned insider vote of confidence. The Relative Strength Index has sunk to 17.1, deep in oversold territory, but technical indicators alone rarely catch a falling knife when the fundamental story has changed this dramatically.

Defense Tech Emerges as a Wild Card

While the civilian business struggles with slower-than-expected adoption of its autonomous gastronomy systems, Circus has found an unexpected proving ground. The company’s “Circus Defence” division has begun live operations of its robotic catering systems near Kyiv, serving Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade. It marks the first operational deployment of the technology in an active conflict zone.

The move offers a dual benefit: real-world data for the company’s AI development and a potential new revenue stream in a sector with deep pockets. But investors remain divided. The defense market is heavily regulated, logistically complex, and offers no guarantee of scalable revenue. The company also secured regulatory approval for the United Arab Emirates in early July and began a commercial rollout in Abu Dhabi, while completing the acquisition of Belgian food-robotics firm Alberts.

A Leadership Upgrade Amid the Turmoil

Circus strengthened its executive bench in early July, appointing a new co-CEO and CFO with experience in aviation and automotive — sectors known for complex supply chains and capital intensity. The new hires are tasked with steering global expansion and M&A activity, even as the company’s core financial projections have been rewritten downward.

The contrast is striking: on one hand, Circus is expanding internationally, acquiring technology, and deploying systems in war zones. On the other, its revenue forecast has collapsed, its losses are mounting, and the stock has lost two-thirds of its value in a month. The annualized volatility stands at 152.65%, capturing just how wildly the market is swinging between hope and reality.

For now, the board’s insider purchase offers a floor that has already been breached. Whether Circus Defence can become the second leg the company needs — or whether the civilian business can recover its growth trajectory — remains the open question that no single share purchase can answer.